Bitcoin clears 200-day SMA, eyes $83,000 as ETF demand builds

Bitcoin held near $79,500 on Aug. 27 after clearing its 200-day moving average, with ETF demand and U.S. policy support driving a 20 percent rally since Aug. 17.

"Looking solely at the charts, BTC bulls must next overcome the 50-week simple moving average that exerted strong resistance today," Han Tan, chief market analyst at Bybit, said. "A return to the $82.5k-$83k region would surpass the breakeven price for many ETF investors, and may entice more fresh funds in from the sidelines."

Bitcoin peaked at $81,255 on Aug. 24 before fading, and has since oscillated between $77,000 and $79,000. The pullback has coincided with reduced leverage: bitcoin liquidations totaled $88 million over the past day, with $77 million in wiped-out long bets, while crypto-wide liquidations surpassed $302 million, split between $247 million in longs and $55 million in shorts, per Bitstamp data.

The next test comes Friday, when Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole. An overtly hawkish tone could force bitcoin and other cryptos to surrender recent gains, Tan warned, while a more nuanced read on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's "Treasury twist" could extend the rally toward the $82,500-$83,000 region.

Liquidations Ease as Long Bets Take the Bigger Hit

Bitcoin's price action over the last day resulted in significantly reduced liquidations, with leveraged long bets accounting for the larger chunk. According to Bitstamp data, liquidations on bitcoin topped $88 million, with wiped-out long bets reaching $77 million. This trend was consistent across the broader cryptocurrency market, where total liquidations surpassed $302 million, split between $247 million in leveraged longs and $55 million in short bets.

Macro Risks Loom Over the Rally

Days after the price spike, observers including BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes have tied the cryptocurrency's performance to actions by the U.S. Treasury. There is no consensus on how long bond buybacks will sustain bitcoin's upward trajectory. While Hayes sees this as the beginning of a bull run, Tan remains cautious, flagging that the rally has been heavily dependent on macro signals. He warned that BTC's rally may run out of momentum if Bessent offers greater nuance to his "Treasury twist" that dampens concerns surrounding the U.S. fiscal deficit.

The stakes are measurable: reclaiming the $82,500-$83,000 zone would put bitcoin above the breakeven price for many ETF investors, potentially drawing fresh institutional capital from the sidelines. A failure to hold $79,000 support, by contrast, could unwind the technical breakout and pull the asset back toward the $77,000 range where it has repeatedly found buyers this week.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.