Bitcoin holds $80,000 as 60% Fed hike odds face CPI test

September Fed rate-hike odds returned to about 60 percent after Friday's jobs report, leaving Bitcoin to defend $80,000 into this week's inflation data.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would be inclined to leave rates unchanged if August inflation shows continued progress, but would consider a hike if the data comes in hot, according to remarks reported Friday.

The Labor Department reported 162,000 jobs added in August, far above forecasts near 58,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1 percent. September hike odds jumped to 60.4 percent Friday from 49.4 percent a day earlier, per Investors.com. Bitcoin slipped to about $79,450 after an earlier rejection near $81,500, while the 10-year Treasury yield settled near 4.77 percent.

The Aug. CPI report due Sept. 11 is the decisive test. A hot print would solidify hike expectations and pressure Bitcoin below $80,000 toward the mid-$70,000s, while a cool reading could reverse them and open a path toward resistance near $82,793, per Reuters technical analysis. The Fed's Sept. 15-16 meeting follows days later.

The macro repricing collides with one of the strongest institutional buying stretches of the year. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $730.9 million of inflows Thursday, their largest single-day take since Jan. 14, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for roughly $454 million, ARK 21Shares about $138 million and Fidelity $74 million. Total ETF assets climbed above $103 billion, more than 6 percent of Bitcoin's market capitalization, after the funds drew about $3.52 billion in August, their best month of 2026.

The buying traces to Treasury buybacks that weakened the dollar and revived demand for scarce assets, helping Bitcoin rally roughly 30 percent from the low-$60,000s. CoinShares describes the move as Bitcoin trading "like gold again," with concerns around U.S. fiscal sustainability supporting scarce assets.

Yet Bitcoin still trades as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset when rate expectations rise. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said policy is not restrictive enough and inflation remains too high, and gold fell about 0.8 percent Friday to test the $4,400 area as the stronger dollar and higher yields weighed on both.

Reuters identifies resistance near $82,793, while Galaxy Research highlights the 50-week moving average around $81,000. A sustained break could reopen the path toward $90,000; failure leaves the mid-$70,000s as the key support region.

The next event that can move the market is not another crypto headline but the Aug. CPI report on Sept. 11, followed by the Fed decision days later. Bitcoin has the institutional demand to challenge $80,000; whether it stays above the level may depend on whether inflation lets the Fed stop tightening.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.