Bitcoin slides as Trump declares Iran ceasefire 'over' after $487M ETF inflows

Bitcoin's nascent recovery ran into a wall of geopolitical risk Wednesday after President Donald Trump said the US-Iran ceasefire was "over," triggering a cross-asset selloff that erased gains from the strongest week of ETF inflows in two months.

Bitcoin fell as Trump, speaking at the NATO summit in Ankara, told reporters the preliminary truce signed last month was finished. "To me, I think it's over," he said, adding that he would allow negotiations to continue. The remarks came after the US struck more than 80 targets in Iran overnight in retaliation for attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran responded by targeting 85 US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait.

The selloff interrupted what had been a promising week for Bitcoin. The token was up 6% month-to-date and had just broken an eight-week streak of ETF outflows with three consecutive days of net inflows totaling $487 million, according to data from the issuers. The reversal highlights how fragile the macro backdrop remains for digital assets even as institutional demand shows signs of recovering.

"The A.I. theme is intact, and strong earnings are on the way," Louis Navellier, a longtime money manager, wrote in a research note. "The Iran situation still casts a shadow, with the chance for sudden high escalation still not out of the question."

Oil prices surged more than 5% as the Strait of Hormuz shipping risk was raised to "severe," with Brent crude climbing above $78 a barrel. The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 550 points, and European stocks slid 1.8% as investors rotated away from risk assets. The dollar strengthened on haven demand, adding headwinds for Bitcoin, which tends to weaken when the greenback rallies.

Benjamin Cowen, a crypto analyst, argued the current four-year cycle pattern still points to a counter-trend rally through July before a final leg lower later this year. The key question for traders is whether the geopolitical shock proves transient — as previous Iran-related scares have — or marks a structural breakdown in the fragile ceasefire that had allowed risk assets to recover in recent weeks.

Trump said the US may reinstate its naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to hit Iran "hard" again, while also acknowledging that Iran would likely retaliate by mining the waterway. The International Maritime Organization urged ship operators to avoid the strait, warning that nearly 6,000 seafarers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf.

For Bitcoin, the immediate technical picture hinges on whether the ETF inflow momentum can reassert itself once the geopolitical dust settles. The eight-week outflow streak had been the longest since the products launched, and the $487 million reversal represented the strongest three-day accumulation period in that timeframe. A failure to hold recent levels would put the focus back on the macro headwinds that drove the outflows in the first place.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.