Bitcoin slips to $77,600 as Middle East strikes lift oil

Bitcoin fell to $77,600, its weakest since early September, before recovering above $78,000 as Middle East strikes lifted oil and pressured U.S. stocks.

"The retest of ~$78,300 is now in progress," Rekt Capital, a technical analyst who charts Bitcoin price patterns, posted on X. A weekly candle closing beneath that level, followed by a bearish retest, "would likely confirm a breakdown," he said.

The slide came during Tuesday's early Wall Street session as the S&P 500 opened 0.5 percent lower and the Nasdaq fell 0.4 percent. WTI crude advanced toward $95 a barrel while Brent tested $100 for the first time since July 24, settling at $98.63. American forces struck several Iranian oil tankers near Kharg Island and across the Gulf of Oman after Iranian attempts to engage a U.S. Navy vessel, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards threatened shipping approaching Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports. Tehran is establishing an exclusion zone around the Strait of Hormuz, while Yemen's Houthi forces hit four Saudi cities with drones and missiles, leaving 73 casualties and igniting fires at petroleum installations in Jazan and Abha.

The $78,300 zone now carries outsized weight. Rekt Capital drew parallels to May, when Bitcoin peaked at $82,800, steadied near $78,300, then plunged to roughly $57,000. A weekly close beneath the level would mark another lower high in a sequence dating to October 2025, deepening the bearish structure of Bitcoin's 2026 decline.

Oil's Climb Tightens the Macro Squeeze

The escalation is feeding directly into energy prices, and through them into the inflation calculus that shapes risk appetite. Brent's push toward $100, its first since late July, revives the prospect of renewed price pressure just as markets weigh the path for central bank policy. Bitcoin traded in step with equities through the session, a correlation that has held as investors rotate toward havens during the strikes, and the same risk-off tone that dragged the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower kept a lid on the recovery above $78,000.

Bulls Eye a Breakout Above $83,000

Ted Pillows, another market analyst, said a weekly close above $83,000 could set up a move toward $100,000 before year-end, noting Bitcoin recently formed a daily golden cross even as spot demand weakens. CryptosBatman said Bitcoin has climbed back above its weekly 200-day moving average but still faces overhead resistance, retesting a long-term downtrend line while weekly RSI approaches descending resistance.

Michaël van de Poppe suggested the pullback may be nearing its end, flagging the $72,000 to $74,000 range as an accumulation zone should further downside materialize.

For traders, the near-term path hinges on whether Bitcoin defends $78,300 into the weekly close. A decisive hold could set up a test of the $83,000 resistance that bulls say would confirm a trend shift, while a break below opens the door to the deeper retracement zone analysts have flagged. The oil-driven risk backdrop will likely decide which scenario plays out.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.