Bitcoin surges 26% in August as gold correlation deepens

Bitcoin gained 26% in August to about $79,850, outperforming the Nasdaq 100's 4.8% advance and the S&P 500's 3.2% rise, according to CoinDesk data. Gold added 13.8% over the same period, and the two assets have been moving in tandem as investors increasingly treat bitcoin as a hedge rather than a pure risk asset.

Coinglass data shows bitcoin futures open interest holding steady just above $140 billion while trading volume rose nearly 10% to $222 billion over the past 24 hours. The taker volume ratio has turned marginally bearish, with shorts at 51% of the flow, suggesting the market is churning rather than building fresh directional positioning.

Since the U.S. Treasury's bond buyback announcement on Aug. 19, bitcoin has gained roughly 26%, according to CoinDesk data. The cryptocurrency touched $81,455 on Friday, its highest since May 15, before pulling back to around $79,850. The Altcoin Season index sits at 34/100, well within bitcoin-dominated territory, as most altcoins gave back between 2% and 3% since midnight.

The $82,800 level — where price was rejected in May — now stands as the key resistance. A break above could open the path toward $85,000, where the most active call option on Deribit expires Sept. 26. Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has fallen to 41% from a recent high of 50%, suggesting options traders do not expect Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Friday speech at Jackson Hole to trigger significant turbulence.

Solana futures stand out against bitcoin and ether for a second straight day, with open interest climbing to 70.88 million SOL tokens, the most since early July, according to Coinglass. The 24-hour open-interest-adjusted cumulative volume delta, however, is now negative, suggesting short sellers are showing greater urgency. SOL fell 2.6% to around $106, giving back some of its 18% weekly gain.

Monero bucked the broader trend, rising 2.2% to around $464, building on a 12.8% gain over the past seven days. The privacy coin's annualized perpetual funding rates sit at 67%, a sign the bullish trade is getting overcrowded. Zcash slipped 2.4% but remains roughly 41% higher over the past week, one of the bigger beneficiaries of last week's short squeeze.

The Trump memecoin surged 24% to around $2.80, making it the day's standout performer despite no obvious news. Open interest has jumped 57% over the past week to $188.72 million, indicating a derivatives-driven move as leveraged longs pile in.

The shift in bitcoin's correlation profile carries implications beyond price. If the asset continues to track gold rather than equities, it could attract institutional capital seeking inflation hedges, diversifying bitcoin's role away from risk-on assets. The next test comes at the $82,800 resistance, with the Sept. 26 $85,000 call expiry serving as a potential magnet for price action.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.