Cardano whales dump 190M ADA as derivatives flip bearish toward $0.138

Cardano fell 5% to $0.1710 on July 8, extending its losing streak to four sessions as the worst performer among the top 20 crypto assets, CoinGecko data shows.

"Whale wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA have collectively shed 190 million tokens since July 1, according to Santiment's Supply Distribution metric, and the selling has resumed after last week's brief recovery," the on-chain data provider reported. The distribution spans three cohorts — 100K-1M ADA, 1M-10M ADA, and 10M-100M ADA — all of which have reduced holdings simultaneously.

The derivatives market has flipped decisively bearish. Cardano's long-to-short ratio fell to 0.79 on CoinGlass, approaching a one-month low and showing that short positions now outweigh longs by a meaningful margin. The open interest-weighted funding rate turned negative to -0.0060%, meaning short sellers are paying longs to maintain their positions — a structural condition that typically removes the fuel for a short-term bounce. Open interest dropped 8% to $434.34 million, per CoinGlass data, as leveraged positions were cleared out during the selloff.

The $0.138 Fibonacci cycle low now represents the primary downside target if selling pressure persists. Immediate support sits at the psychological $0.150 level, and a break below that opens the path to the cycle low. On the upside, ADA faces multiple layers of overhead resistance: the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.173, the 50-day exponential moving average at $0.185, and the 100-day EMA at $0.216. The 200-day EMA at $0.289 remains far above the current price, a reminder of the structural downtrend.

Whale Distribution Mirrors June Pattern

The current selloff follows a similar pattern to early June, when the same whale cohorts offloaded roughly 260 million ADA, according to Mitrade's analysis from June 12. That episode coincided with a long-to-short ratio of 0.68 — more extreme than the current 0.79 reading — suggesting the market has not yet reached peak bearishness by that measure. The prior wave preceded a drop to $0.1382, which marked a multi-year low for ADA on June 26.

Momentum indicators offer a mixed read. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence has turned positive, and the Relative Strength Index is hovering near 51, suggesting selling pressure is stabilizing rather than accelerating. But both signals must be weighed against the broader technical structure: ADA remains below every key EMA on the daily chart, and the most recent bounce was capped at the 32.82% Fibonacci retracement near $0.195, confirming that sellers are active at each recovery attempt.

The Bull Case Requires a Whale Pivot

For the bearish setup to invalidate, the Santiment-tracked whale cohorts would need to flip from distribution to accumulation, and ADA would need to reclaim $0.173 on rising volume. A sustained move above the 50-day EMA at $0.185 would then open the door to the $0.195 resistance zone and, eventually, the $0.213-$0.217 supply band where the 50% retracement, 100-day EMA, and a broken descending trendline converge.

That scenario is not impossible — prior cycles have seen these same cohorts pivot at depressed levels — but the derivatives data does not yet signal that rotation is underway. Until on-chain data shows whale behavior shifting decisively, the $0.138 target remains the more credible near-term outcome.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.