CLARITY Act vote slips to September as odds fall to 15%

The CLARITY Act's Senate vote slipped to September after Democrats withheld consent, cutting 2026 passage odds on Polymarket to about 15 percent.

The Senate postponed the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) to September after Democrats withheld the time agreement needed for a pre-recess floor vote, cutting 2026 passage odds on Polymarket to about 15 percent.

"The Dems insisted on no Clarity vote. We're getting that queued up first thing [when] we come back in September," Majority Leader John Thune said, according to POLITICO.

The bill, which would split crypto oversight between two regulators, needs 60 votes to clear the Senate. Republican leaders needed all 100 senators to sign a time agreement covering the pre-recess agenda; Democrats declined, insisting that crypto negotiations continue first. Thune may still file cloture, the procedural step that sets up a vote, though the measure is likely to wait until lawmakers return next month.

The ethics language continues to divide the two sides. A bipartisan counteroffer from Senators Thom Tillis and Ruben Gallego would force federal officials to divest stakes exceeding $1 million and 10 percent of a company's value, with Trump family crypto ventures at the center of the push. Seven Senate Democrats pushed back against an earlier draft in July. Senators are also working through Bank Regulatory Clarity Act discussions and stablecoin-yield amendments after a Wall Street Journal opinion piece reignited debate around yield-bearing stablecoins.

Prediction-market pricing has cooled alongside the delay. Polymarket contracts on a 2026 signing trade near 15 percent, down from more than 70 percent in early May, across $5.16 million in volume. Kalshi prices the odds at about 20 percent. Bitcoin has held a range-bound structure above $64,000, according to CoinIdol data.

Industry pressure continues. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said the Senate has spent nearly a year on the bill, with lawmakers, regulators, banks, and the crypto industry all making compromises. "The remaining issue is no longer a compromise but whether the Senate is willing to bring the legislation to a vote," he said. Digital Chamber CEO Cody Carbone said "the fight is far from over."

For XRP holders, the September showdown carries particular weight. The bill's classification framework would determine whether tokens such as XRP are treated as securities or commodities, a question that has shadowed the asset since the SEC's enforcement actions. Passage would give exchanges and issuers a clearer compliance path; continued gridlock keeps the sector in regulatory limbo while other jurisdictions advance their own frameworks.

History offers a counterweight. The GENIUS Act lost its first cloture vote before passing weeks later, and a blocked bill in September need not mark the end. Still, with Congress returning alongside a busy legislative calendar and midterm campaigning, floor time is not guaranteed.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.