CoreWeave heads into its Q2 2026 earnings in early August with BofA projecting a 2.4% operating margin, below the 2.8% consensus estimate.
"Capacity availability — rather than vendor choice — represents the critical constraint in today's market environment," BofA Securities analysts said in a July 20 research note, dismissing concerns that Meta or SpaceX could erode CoreWeave's market share.
BofA raised its fiscal 2026 capital expenditure forecast for CoreWeave to $34 billion from $29 billion, reflecting accelerating AI infrastructure requirements. The firm projects margins will expand sequentially to 14.6 percent by the fourth quarter, a sharp improvement from the 1 percent recorded in Q1. For the full year, BofA expects a loss of $3.81 per share. Shares of CoreWeave traded at $73.21, down 52 percent from the 52-week high of $153.20, before recovering to $76.73 later in the session.
The shift in investor focus from demand to execution reflects a broader challenge facing AI infrastructure providers. With data center power activation becoming the primary bottleneck, CoreWeave's ability to convert its $34 billion capex plan into revenue-generating capacity will determine whether margins can reach 14.6 percent by year-end.
Other firms echoed BofA's bullish stance. Wolfe Research confirmed its Outperform rating with a $150 target price. Rosenblatt upheld its Buy rating with a $250 price objective, and Evercore ISI maintained its Outperform designation at $150. Elevated call options volume, concentrated in August expiration dates, suggests traders are positioning for a short-term recovery.
The BofA note highlights a structural shift in how investors evaluate AI cloud companies. CoreWeave's customer commitments remain strong and demand for GPU capacity shows no signs of slowing, but the company's ability to build out and activate power for its data centers has become the key variable. The Q2 earnings call in early August will provide the first update on whether CoreWeave is hitting its activation milestones.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.