CrowdStrike heads into Q2 earnings with $1.44B revenue consensus

CrowdStrike is scheduled to report fiscal Q2 revenue of $1.44 billion on Aug. 26, up 23.2% from a year earlier, per consensus.

"CrowdStrike guided to revenue of $1.43 billion to $1.44 billion and non-GAAP earnings of 29 cents a share for the quarter," the company said in its outlook. KeyBanc raised its price target to $240 from $234, citing strong checks and continued demand for the Falcon platform.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal second-quarter earnings is pegged at 29 cents a share, implying year-over-year growth of 26.1%. CrowdStrike beat consensus in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 4.7%. Ending ARR reached $5.51 billion in Q1, with revenue growth accelerating to 25.57%.

Shares closed at $190.34 on Aug. 21, down 16 percent over five sessions but up 84 percent over the past year. The average analyst target of $208.74 implies about 10 percent upside, while the Aug. 26 report will test whether growth justifies a forward price-to-sales multiple of 29.36 times.

Falcon Flex and AI drive growth

Falcon Flex, CrowdStrike's modular subscription model, ended Q1 with more than 1,900 customers representing nearly $2 billion in annual recurring revenue, up 99 percent year over year. Next-Gen SIEM surpassed $600 million in ending ARR, while AI Detection and Response grew more than 250 percent sequentially with a Q2 pipeline exceeding $50 million.

Valuation and insider activity

CrowdStrike trades at a forward price-to-sales multiple of 29.36 times versus the industry's 17.23 times, and above peers Qualys at 8.16 times, Okta at 6.98 times and Check Point Software at 4.58 times. CEO George Kurtz sold more than $4.1 million of stock on Aug. 18-19 at prices between $198.12 and $215.46, while a GuruFocus fair-value model puts intrinsic value at $130.60, or 46.4 percent below the current price.

The report on Aug. 26 will show whether CrowdStrike extends its streak of eight straight earnings beats, with prediction markets assigning an 89 percent probability of a ninth. Investors will watch net new ARR and free cash flow, which hit $468.5 million in Q1 at a 34 percent margin, for signs the growth trajectory holds.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.