ChangXin Memory Technologies closed its first trading day with a 3.27 trillion yuan market cap, making it the most valuable stock on the A-share market and triggering a debate between bulls and bears over whether the Chinese DRAM maker is worth $1 trillion.
ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) debuted on the STAR Market with a 465.8% surge to a 3.27 trillion yuan market cap, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China as the most valuable A-share stock and setting off a valuation clash between Nomura and Northeast Securities.
"CXMT's DRAM chips represent the jewel in China's crown," Nomura analysts wrote in a report initiating coverage with a Buy rating and a 116 yuan target price, implying a 7.76 trillion yuan market cap — roughly $1 trillion and double Micron Technology's current valuation.
The Hefei-based company, which holds 7.67% of the global DRAM market, saw its market cap peak at 3.66 trillion yuan intraday before closing at 49 yuan per share. Trading volume exceeded 140 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 66.4%, while the free float stands at just 6.63%. CXMT's Q1 2026 gross margin hit 79.16% as revenue surged 719% year-on-year to 50.8 billion yuan, driven by a memory super-cycle and capacity expansion from 270,000 wafers per month in 2025 to a planned 450,000 by 2027.
The valuation gap between Nomura's 20x PE target and Northeast Securities' more conservative 10-15x range — implying a 3.2 trillion to 5.7 trillion yuan market cap — reflects fundamentally different bets on CXMT's long-term market share ceiling. Nomura assumes 25% to 30% global share, while Northeast Securities models 17%. With only 6.63% of shares freely tradable, the stock remains vulnerable to extreme volatility as institutional investors who participated in the IPO — including 100 fund managers who collectively received 12.51 billion shares — hold the majority of positions.
The $1 Trillion Question
Nomura's 116 yuan target, which implies a 1,239% upside from the IPO price of 8.66 yuan, is built on three assumptions: structural tightening of global memory supply as Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron shift capacity toward HBM (high-bandwidth memory for AI chips); accelerated market share gains for CXMT as its process technology migrates from the fourth to fifth generation; and a dual growth premium from domestic substitution and AI demand.
Northeast Securities analyst Li Jiu arrived at a 3.2 trillion to 5.7 trillion yuan range using three independent methods — market share relative valuation, earnings-based PE valuation and unit capacity valuation — all of which converged around 3 trillion to 4.3 trillion yuan after deducting minority interests. The 24% minority interest ratio, far above the less than 1% at Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, means the parent company valuation is significantly lower than the consolidated figure.
Who Wins, Who Loses
CXMT's surge does not change the global DRAM shortage, according to Milk Road AI analyst Melvin. The company's monthly capacity of 290,000 to 320,000 wafers remains well below Samsung's roughly 630,000 and SK Hynix's approximately 500,000. US export restrictions on advanced lithography equipment also constrain CXMT's expansion pace, and the company is unlikely to enter the HBM market in the short term.
For investors, the key question is whether CXMT can sustain its momentum. The stock's 6.63% free float creates a supply-demand imbalance that could fuel further gains, but it also means any large sell order could trigger sharp declines. The company plans to allocate 9 billion yuan of its 57.9 billion yuan IPO proceeds toward forward-looking research and development, which the market interprets as HBM investment — a potential catalyst for the next leg of growth. CXMT shares, trading at roughly 10 times 2027 earnings under Northeast Securities' base case, would need to sustain a 20x multiple to justify Nomura's $1 trillion target.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
