Key Takeaways:
Blockbuster artificial-intelligence deals and a rush to lock down transactions in the U.S. pushed global merger-and-acquisition volume past $3 trillion in the first half of 2026, a 44% jump from a year earlier.
Global M&A volume surged 44% year-over-year to more than $3 trillion in the first half of 2026, setting a new first-half record as blockbuster AI deals and a rush to close U.S. transactions powered the market, according to Mergermarket data.
"We've had so many events that could be considered black swans in previous years, and then the markets have just ignored it and carried on," said Lucinda Guthrie, executive editor at Mergermarket.
Megadeals valued at more than $10 billion accounted for 42% of all dealmaking volume, while a record six "gigadeals" — those exceeding $50 billion — were announced. OpenAI's $122 billion fundraise in February and NextEra Energy's proposed $67 billion acquisition of Dominion Energy led the charge, with AI demand boosting both the software and energy sectors. Yet the total number of deals fell 3%, exposing a polarized market where large companies with strong balance sheets dominate while smaller firms struggle amid high interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty.
The surge faces headwinds heading into the second half of the year. Rising skepticism about the tech sector's ability to convert AI infrastructure costs into profits could slow activity, Guthrie said. In the U.S., dealmakers are racing to close transactions before the regulatory window potentially narrows after the Trump presidency — a dynamic that pushed U.S. M&A up 72% in the period.
The sky-high dollar figures mask a market that is deeply divided, the Mergermarket report showed. Large corporations with strong balance sheets have been the primary engines of dealmaking, using their financial firepower to pursue transformative acquisitions. Smaller and mid-sized companies, by contrast, have largely sat on the sidelines, with management teams more sensitive to macroeconomic volatility, elevated borrowing costs and geopolitical uncertainty.
AI was the common thread among the largest transactions. Beyond OpenAI's record-breaking fundraise and NextEra's utility-scale play, the technology's insatiable demand for computing power and energy has created a wave of consolidation across both the tech and energy sectors. Rising power demand tied to AI data centers has made energy infrastructure a prime target for acquirers, the report noted.
U.S. transactions jumped 72% in the first half, far outpacing the global average, as dealmakers sought to capitalize on what is widely seen as a permissive regulatory environment. The urgency reflects a calculation that the window for large-scale consolidation could close under a future administration with a stricter antitrust posture.
"There is a sense that if you don't get some of these game-changing deals done now then, under another administration, you might not get the opportunity to do them again," Guthrie said. That dynamic is expected to keep U.S. M&A elevated through the second half of the year as large companies push to finalize pending transactions.
The sustainability of the megadeal cycle, however, remains uncertain. If interest rates stay high or rise further, financing costs could dampen activity. More critically, a correction in AI-related valuations — if the sector fails to deliver the profits its infrastructure costs imply — could remove the primary engine driving the current wave, Guthrie warned.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
