Iran warns launch sites at risk as oil slides to $79

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that sites used to launch attacks against Tehran could become targets, as Brent crude slipped to $79.08 a barrel on hopes a Strait of Hormuz reopening deal would end five months of war.

"Iran has no intention of targeting neighboring countries, but locations used to launch attacks against Iran may themselves become targets," Pezeshkian said Thursday. He added that a consensus reached with France to prevent the snapback of UN sanctions was blocked by the United States, saying Europe lacks independent decision-making authority.

The warning comes as Iran and Oman finalize a proposed framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 21 percent of global oil trade. Shipping traffic through the waterway fell to just two vessels Wednesday from eight a day earlier, down from the 130 to 140 ships that typically transited before the war began Feb. 28. Brent crude fell 37 cents to $79.08 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate declined 53 cents to $74.69.

The stakes are high for global energy markets. The US national average for a gallon of gasoline sits above $4, up from below $3 when the war started, and Iran has threatened to "black out the Gulf, country by country" if the US strikes its power plants. Iran has reported more than 3,400 deaths since the war began, while the US has reported 18 military personnel killed.

Hormuz deal would hand Tehran control of inbound traffic

The proposed Iran-Oman framework would give Tehran control over ships entering the Gulf through the strait, one of the biggest concessions yet to Iran, according to a senior Iranian source and two regional officials. Iran is seeking fees of between 5 percent and 7 percent of cargo value from ships using the waterway, while Oman is discussing around 3 percent and Washington wants no fees at all.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said talks with Oman had "reached fundamental understandings" and that commercial ships would pass through Iranian territorial waters on both inbound and outbound legs. He said the arrangement was "on the verge of being finalized."

The last time shipping through Hormuz was disrupted at this scale was during the 2019 tanker attacks, when Brent spiked above $70 a barrel within weeks. This time, the closure has been far more severe — traffic has collapsed to near zero, and eight major shipping associations, including BIMCO and the International Chamber of Shipping, have urged the UN to oppose any compulsory tolls, warning that fees would undermine freedom of navigation and damage the global economy.

US pressure mounts as munitions stocks run low

President Donald Trump said Wednesday he would rather reach a deal with Iran than resort to military action, saying "I'd rather make a deal because I don't want to kill people." But he warned that force remains an option if diplomacy fails.

The Washington Post reported that Trump confronted Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at Camp David last week over severe munitions shortages that have constrained military options against Iran. The White House denied the report, with press secretary Karoline Leavitt calling it "100 percent fake news."

US Central Command said it has redirected 48 commercial vessels, disabled two and boarded two as part of its blockade enforcement. Iran has warned Gulf states that any new US attack on its territory would trigger retaliation against critical energy infrastructure across the region.

Vice President JD Vance said the US will use military, economic and diplomatic tools to bring the conflict to a resolution, describing Iranians as "extraordinarily difficult people" with a "fractured system." He said oil prices will "come down and stay down" once the conflict is resolved.

The Houthi group in Yemen, which has imposed a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea, claimed Wednesday it struck a second Saudi oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden, adding to supply-side pressure. Saudi Arabia's defense ministry appointed a commander to lead a maritime coalition of Gulf countries, a sign of the region's efforts to secure shipping lanes.

If the Hormuz deal collapses, oil prices could spike sharply higher, pushing US gasoline prices further above $4 a gallon and adding to inflation pressures ahead of November midterm elections. If it succeeds, Brent could fall toward the $70 level, easing the energy-driven cost burden on consumers and businesses.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.