Moderna faces 2 catalysts in 6 days as earnings and FDA decision loom

Moderna heads into Q2 earnings on a five-quarter beat streak, with traders pricing an 84% probability of another beat.

"The options market is pricing a high probability of another beat," according to Polymarket data, which shows an 84% chance Moderna exceeds consensus estimates. The July 31 expiration put/call ratio of 0.12 ranks among the most call-skewed stocks ahead of earnings.

Q1 2026 revenue landed at $389 million against $236.36 million consensus, a 64.58% beat on 263.6% year-over-year growth. That extended a streak of five straight quarterly beats, with an average one-week post-earnings move of 5.26%.

An FDA approval of mRNA-1010 on August 5 would give Moderna its fifth commercial product, rebuilding the respiratory franchise before the 2026-2027 flu season. Management reaffirmed up to 10% revenue growth on a $1.94 billion 2025 base and a year-end cash position of $4.5 billion to $5 billion.

Beyond the two near-term catalysts, Phase 3 adjuvant melanoma data for intismeran — developed alongside Merck's KEYTRUDA — are due later this year. The combination reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 49 percent versus KEYTRUDA alone. Norovirus and propionic acidemia readouts are also expected.

Moderna continues to post large GAAP losses, but the Q1 result included an $878 million litigation settlement that did not reflect the underlying business. Management still expects to finish 2026 with $4.5 billion to $5 billion in cash and investments, providing runway for several upcoming clinical readouts.

Friday's earnings report will test whether revenue continues to recover, while the August 5 FDA decision could add a fifth commercial product ahead of the next flu season. Together, those events will determine whether Moderna's 83 percent year-to-date rally has more room to run.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.