Nebius jumps 18% to $227.70 as AI cloud peers rally on earnings

Nebius Group shares jumped 18% to $227.70 Wednesday morning after second-quarter revenue surged 454% to $582.3 million, beating the $572.75 million consensus and extending a 131% year-to-date rally.

"Investors should focus on whether strong demand for AI compute and sustained pricing power can push Nebius to raise its full-year guidance," said Alexander Duval, an analyst at Goldman Sachs who rates the stock Buy with a $286 price target.

CoreWeave shares ran hotter, jumping 20% to $108.40 after its own Q2 print landed after Tuesday's close. The company posted EPS of -$1.14 against the -$1.41 expected on roughly $2.5 billion in revenue, with adjusted operating income of $128 million versus the $66 million consensus. Its revenue backlog now sits at $104 billion, excluding another $25 billion-plus of Q3 commitments, and CEO Michael Intrator flagged near-term capacity as effectively sold out. Cloudflare shares were unchanged at $307, and the First Trust Cloud Computing ETF gained 2% to $164.78.

The divergence shows the market is rewarding direct AI compute exposure and durable backlog visibility over diversified cloud baskets. Both Nebius and CoreWeave rent NVIDIA GPU capacity to end customers, so NVIDIA's next data center commentary will shape positioning across the neocloud complex. The near-term risk is macro rather than fundamental: any softening in hyperscaler AI capex commentary could compress the rerating premium quickly.

Prepayments De-Risk the Capex Build-Out

Nebius's core AI cloud business, which now drives 98% of the top line, grew more than 500% year over year. Management disclosed four landmark AI cloud deals each carrying more than $1 billion in total contract value, with 70% of signed deals including customer prepayments. CEO Arkady Volozh reaffirmed the company's full-year 2026 outlook. Prepayments matter because they de-risk the aggressive capex build-out that has weighed on the neocloud narrative.

Reddit sentiment on NBIS registered bullish at 78 around the earnings window, while the composite prediction score for the name sits at 71, tilting bullish with medium confidence. CoreWeave's sentiment was more cautious: Reddit sentiment came in bearish at 28, with insider selling and rising debt loads as counterweights to the growth story.

The First Trust Cloud Computing ETF's muted gain illustrates the sector-concentration caveat. Diversification dilutes any single-name earnings pop, so traders seeking direct exposure to the neocloud trade are getting it through NBIS and CRWV shares rather than the ETF.

Investors will watch whether NBIS holds Wednesday's gains into the close, with the name already up 131% year to date heading into the session. The stock trades near its 20-day moving average, with a critical post-earnings resistance level at $220-$223, according to TradingView data. Support sits at $181.95, with downside risk extending to $165-$170 if that level fails.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.