Saudi crude exports go dark as Houthi attacks force $5 detour

Saudi crude exports from the Red Sea are going dark as tankers switch off transponders to avoid Houthi attacks, with Sidi Kerir loadings at a record 2.17 million barrels per day.

"Last week Yanbu liftings were all conducted dark. We're not seeing any loadings with Automatic Identification System on at the moment," said George Morris, analyst at Vortexa.

Ship-tracking firms are producing widely divergent estimates of Saudi export volumes. Vortexa estimated Yanbu loadings fell to 2.38 million barrels per day from 2.71 million in the week beginning Aug. 3, while Kpler calculated a sharper drop to 1.78 million from 4.04 million. About 70 percent of Saudi west coast loadings over the past few weeks were dark, according to Kpler analyst Nhway Khin Soe.

The rerouting carries a steep cost. Crude moving from Yanbu north through the Red Sea, across Egypt's SUMED pipeline to Sidi Kerir, then around the Cape of Good Hope to Asia adds roughly $5 per barrel — nearly $10 million for a two-million-barrel cargo. Saudi Aramco is considering a separate pricing mechanism for crude loaded from Sidi Kerir because its normal Asian official selling price no longer reflects the logistics.

All Yanbu loadings now conducted dark

The Houthis declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on July 20, opening a new front in the Iran war. Since then, they have claimed attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, Yanbu oil facilities and the Jazan refinery on the Red Sea coast. All Yanbu cargoes loaded since July 23 involved vessels without continuous AIS coverage, Kpler data shows.

Tankers such as the Sea Majesty approached the Suez Canal this week with a draft indicating it had loaded oil inside the Red Sea while sailing dark. Shipping data firms Vortexa and Kpler said satellite imagery and vessel data indicate the tanker picked up a cargo at Yanbu, though it never publicly signalled Saudi Arabia as its destination, listing Egypt's Ain Sukhna instead. The Maran Thetis, Front Empire and DHT Gazelle have similarly loaded cargoes while dark before reappearing on tracking platforms.

Shipping traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait at the southern tip of the Red Sea has fallen to an average of 32 vessels per day, down from about 50 before the blockade. War risk insurance costs have jumped, and major tanker operators are shifting sailing strategies.

"Most of the VLCC loadings, not just ours, have been directed north, northwest now," said Svein Moxnes Harfjeld, CEO of DHT, on an earnings call last week.

Sidi Kerir loadings hit record 2.17 million bpd

Saudi Arabia has increasingly redirected oil shipments toward Egypt's Ain Sukhna and Sidi Kerir, which sit farther from Houthi positions in Yemen. Crude and condensate loadings at Sidi Kerir averaged a record 2.17 million barrels per day last week, around 50 percent higher than the previous week, with about 90 percent of the total volumes Saudi crude, Vortexa's Morris said.

The detour is expensive but functional. The journey to Asia increases from about 19 days to 48 days. Fuel costs for a tanker rise from approximately $1.26 million to $2.87 million, before adding around $1 million in Suez Canal fees. Fully laden very large crude carriers may need to discharge part of their cargo into the SUMED pipeline before transiting the canal and reload it at Sidi Kerir.

The $5 premium is small compared with the cost of a major supply interruption. Saudi exports were down by around 2.4 million barrels per day year-on-year during the recent disruption, while Gulf exports fell to only 36 percent of pre-war levels. Despite this, Aramco reported 98.4 percent supply reliability in the second quarter, supported by the East-West Pipeline, storage, alternative terminals and its international logistics network.

The East-West Pipeline, which carries crude from Saudi Arabia's eastern producing region to Yanbu, was ramped to its maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day during the first quarter of 2026, according to Aramco. Around 2 million barrels per day feed western refineries, leaving roughly 5 million barrels per day of export capacity.

A satellite image captured Tuesday by the EU's Sentinel-2 satellite showed a VLCC capable of loading about 2 million barrels of crude moored at a single point mooring facility at Ju'aymah, part of Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura export complex — the first tanker loading at this key Persian Gulf port in nearly a month.

The resumption of loadings at Ju'aymah suggests a partial normalization of oil supply flows from the Persian Gulf side, which could ease upward pressure on crude prices. But the fact that this is the first loading in nearly a month highlights the severity of Red Sea-related threats to Saudi exports, maintaining significant supply risk premiums in the oil market.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.