Schwab analysis pegs bitcoin at $95,000 as crypto bill advances

Charles Schwab published a quantitative analysis valuing bitcoin at $95,000 as the US Senate enters the final week before recess with the CLARITY Act, a sweeping crypto regulation bill, still awaiting a floor vote.

"Clear rules are almost here — we're on the one-yard line," Brian Armstrong, chief executive officer of Coinbase Global Inc., said in a post on X after meetings with lawmakers on Capitol Hill.

The CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee by a 15-9 vote on May 14 but has not been scheduled for a floor vote. Supporters need 60 votes to overcome a procedural filibuster, a threshold they have not yet secured, according to people familiar with the negotiations. Senators Tillis and Gallego have finalized a compromise on ethics provisions that could unblock the bill, though the proposal still requires White House approval.

If lawmakers fail to pass the bill before the August recess, the process could be delayed until the fall. SEC Chair Paul Atkins has said the agency will begin writing its own crypto rules under existing authority if Congress does not act, a path he acknowledged would be less durable than a comprehensive statute.

Charles Schwab's valuation analysis, published July 30, arrives as the regulatory outlook for digital assets hangs in the balance. The $95,000 fair value estimate, from the firm's research chief, reflects the potential price impact of regulatory clarity on institutional participation, according to the report. Schwab's entry into the bitcoin valuation debate marks a significant moment — the $8.5 trillion asset manager has traditionally been cautious on crypto, offering bitcoin exposure through futures ETFs but not direct spot trading.

The Graham Act, a separate Russia sanctions bill that passed the Senate 86-0 on July 29, adds another layer of regulatory complexity. While the legislation does not mention crypto directly, its expansion of sanctions to Russian financial institutions and political elites creates compliance obligations that ripple through crypto exchanges, stablecoin issuers and DeFi protocols, according to the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control enforcement framework. Tether and other dollar-denominated stablecoins have been cited in reports as tools used to move value across sanctioned borders, potentially increasing pressure on issuers to demonstrate compliance.

The CLARITY Act represents the most ambitious attempt yet to establish a federal regulatory framework for digital assets in the US. The bill would define which tokens are securities versus commodities, assign jurisdiction between the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and set licensing requirements for crypto exchanges. Industry groups including the Blockchain Association have lobbied for the bill's passage, arguing that the current patchwork of state-by-state regulation is stifling innovation and driving companies overseas.

Bitcoin traded at roughly $78,500 as of 14:00 UTC on July 30, down about 27% year-to-date, according to CoinGecko data. The $95,000 fair value estimate from Schwab implies roughly 21% upside from current levels, though the analysis is contingent on the passage of clear regulatory rules.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.