Solana cup-and-handle targets $105 as memecoin headwinds persist

Solana's SOL token is forming a cup-and-handle pattern on its daily chart, with a technical target near $105-$106, representing a roughly 40% gain from current levels.

"SOL may first encounter resistance at its 200-day EMA near $93.84," Yashu Gola, a crypto journalist and analyst, said. "A decisive daily close above the $80-$81 neckline, preferably alongside higher trading volume, would confirm the bullish breakout."

SOL was trading near $76.75 on July 20 after spending more than a week consolidating below the $80-$81 resistance zone, according to CoinGecko data. The cup began forming after a late-May decline from around $82, with SOL falling toward $59 in June before recovering to approximately $81 in early July. The $80-$81 neckline overlaps with SOL's 100-day exponential moving average near $80.45. The daily relative strength index is near 52, reflecting neutral momentum and leaving room for further upside.

Despite the bullish technical setup, Solana's memecoin ecosystem remains under pressure. An attacker accumulated enough BONK voting power to pass a malicious governance proposal that transferred an estimated $20 million in BONK tokens from the BonkDAO treasury. The incident did not compromise the Solana blockchain but may have damaged confidence in one of its most visible memecoin communities.

Pump.fun's bonding-curve revenue has fallen to below $1 million per day, compared with peaks near $7 million, according to Dune Analytics data. PumpSwap revenue has declined toward roughly $200,000-$300,000 from a peak near $880,000, while Terminal revenue has dropped toward $50,000 from highs near $250,000. The slowdown suggests speculative demand is no longer supporting Solana as strongly as during previous memecoin booms.

A close below the handle support near $74 would weaken the setup. A deeper drop below $69-$70 could invalidate the immediate breakout outlook and expose SOL to a retest of $65.

On the upside, Solana has captured more than $900 million in net real-world asset inflows over the past 30 days, outpacing competing networks, according to RWA.xyz tracking data. The network's total RWA footprint exceeds $3 billion, with cumulative tokenized equity trading volume surpassing $10 billion.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez identified SOL's first SuperTrend buy signal since Oct. 10, targeting $96 and $121 as critical upside levels. The 30-day moving average for daily active addresses has crossed above the 50-day MA, indicating accelerating wallet activation rates across the network.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.