SpaceX climbs 3% as lockup expiration fails to trigger selloff

SpaceX shares rose 3% to $111.14 Thursday as the company's first and largest post-IPO lockup expiration failed to trigger the selloff investors had braced for. The unlock released 911.5 million shares, 143% more than the 638.9 million floated in June's IPO, more than doubling the public float to 11.8% of shares outstanding from 4.9%.

"The unlock is a buying opportunity in a potential multi-generational compounding asset," said Adam Jonas, analyst at Morgan Stanley. Morningstar's Nicolas Owens expects most eligible shares to be sold given low cost basis, while Bank of America's Ron Epstein called it a near-term technical drag rather than a verdict on the company. JPMorgan's Doug Anmuth cited significant pre-positioning ahead of the expiration.

Fundamental support came from SpaceX's Q2 2026 results, which showed revenue of $7.81 billion, beating estimates by 14.6%, with AI segment revenue surging 247% year over year to $2.56 billion and Starlink subscribers doubling to 12 million. The stock had fallen more than 13% Wednesday after the earnings release, nearly breaking below $100.

The successful absorption of newly tradeable equity reduces the downside overhang that had weighed on SPCX since its June debut. Near-term put/call ratio on options expiring August 7 sits at 1.42, reflecting active hedging into the event, while Polymarket traders assign a 97.1% probability the stock finishes the week above $90.

Satellite peers ride the rally

AST SpaceMobile shares jumped 5% to $72 on accelerated network integration testing across eight European countries, with Vodafone, Orange, Telefonica, Deutsche Telekom and Vodafone Ukraine named as carrier partners. The rollout leverages AST's BlueBird satellite constellation and nearly 60 mobile network operator partners representing more than 3 billion subscribers. Rocket Lab rose 5% to $78.57 after completing its 92nd Electron mission, with Q1 2026 revenue of $200.4 million, up 63.5% year over year, and a record backlog of $2.2 billion.

The Procure Space ETF gained 1% to $47.19, with Intuitive Machines jumping 8% to $15.09, Planet Labs climbing 4% to $23.29 and Virgin Galactic rising 2% to $2.94. The synchronized advance across the complex suggests capital is rotating back into space equities after a volatile stretch that saw SpaceX trade below its IPO price.

What to watch

SpaceX's next lockup tranche arrives August 21, releasing roughly 7% of shares, with three more rounds scheduled through December. Because the stock trades below its $135 IPO price, an additional block of up to 455.8 million shares remains locked under price-based protective clauses. Rocket Lab's Q2 2026 report is due August 10, offering the next scheduled event for the sector. Whether SpaceX holds its bid into the close will determine if the rally strengthens the technical case for the shares.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.