US pauses Iran bombing after 13 days as ground war threat rises

The US military pause on airstrikes against Iran marks Washington's acknowledgment that 13 consecutive nights of bombing failed to achieve its stated objectives, leaving a choice between an unwanted ground war and a return to negotiations.

The US paused its bombing campaign against Iran after 13 consecutive nights of airstrikes, acknowledging that aerial bombardment alone has not forced Tehran to the negotiating table, according to a Guardian analysis published Wednesday.

"The bombing has not made Iran surrender, and if the US wants to achieve its stated goals, it would have to fight a ground war it does not want to fight," the analysis said, citing unnamed US officials familiar with internal Pentagon deliberations.

The pause followed a five-day lull in hostilities that had raised hopes for diplomacy, only for Iran to launch multiple ballistic missiles at US bases in the Middle East on Tuesday — all of which were intercepted, according to US Central Command. The war, now nearing its fifth month, has expanded beyond the Strait of Hormuz — which handles 21% of global oil trade — to include Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu, and joint US-Saudi airstrikes against Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.

The Pentagon presented President Donald Trump with a plan for a 14th night of strikes, which he declined to authorize in favor of pursuing talks, Axios reported. Trump has threatened strikes at a "much higher level" if negotiations fail, while reports of dwindling US stockpiles of Patriot interceptors and other defensive munitions have raised questions about Washington's capacity for sustained escalation.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the central flashpoint. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they stopped four ships attempting to transit the waterway in 24 hours, maintaining an effective blockade that has disrupted global energy flows. Brent crude prices have reflected the heightened risk premium, though the pause in US strikes has introduced uncertainty about the direction of oil markets.

The last time the US engaged in sustained aerial bombardment of Iran was never — this conflict has no modern precedent. However, the pattern of escalation followed by diplomatic overtures mirrors the 2019-2020 cycle, when a US drone strike killed Qassem Soleimani and Iran responded with ballistic missile attacks on Iraqi bases hosting US troops. That cycle ended without further escalation after both sides signaled restraint. The current conflict has already lasted longer and spread more widely.

Vice President JD Vance and top US general Dan Caine both raised concerns about further escalation at a White House meeting on Friday, CNN reported. Caine told Trump the military could execute the options available but warned of the potential implications, according to the network.

Dwindling Stockpiles Constrain Options

US media reports indicate that concerns over munitions inventories have restrained plans for further escalation. The New York Times reported that plans to intensify the campaign were shelved in part because of shrinking supplies of Patriot interceptors and other precision-guided munitions. Trump also faces the risk of a wider Middle East war, the estrangement of vulnerable Gulf allies and further shocks to the global economy, the newspaper said.

Iran's army warned on Sunday that the conflict would expand geographically if the US resumed strikes. "If the Americans once again fall for the Zionists' deception, or move in line with them, and insist on continuing the war, particularly through air strikes, geographically this will expand further," army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia told state television.

Negotiation or Escalation

Trump said Friday he had not decided whether to return to an all-out operation. "We're talking to them right now. I think they're getting more and more serious," he told journalists. The war, which Trump once predicted would last four or five weeks, is now nearing its fifth month and weighing on the Republican's approval ratings ahead of crucial US midterm elections in November.

For investors, the key question is whether the pause represents a genuine shift toward diplomacy or a tactical reset before a more intense phase of conflict. A negotiated outcome would likely reduce the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude oil prices and safe-haven assets like gold, while a ground war scenario would represent a significant escalation with unpredictable consequences for global markets.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.