Key Takeaways:
XRP fell below $1 for the first time in nearly two years, printing $0.99057 on Bitstamp as US spot ETF inflows stalled and a cross-chain bridge exploit compounded a broader altcoin selloff.
XRP slipped 0.55 percent to about $1.0055 at 07:07 UTC on Aug 11 before breaking through the $1.0138 support area and the psychological $1 level, trading at its weakest since November 2024. On Bitstamp, the two-hour candle to 16:00 UTC opened at $1.00783, printed a low of $0.99057 and settled at $0.99926, down roughly 1.15 percent against the prior daily close of $1.01108.
CoinGlass data shows about $8.45 million in XRP positions liquidated over 24 hours, with $8.25 million — roughly 97.6 percent — in longs. Short liquidations totaled just $207,044. The skew toward forced long closures explains the shape of the move: leveraged positions built above $1 were closed involuntarily, and each forced sale pushed price into the next cluster of stops.
US spot XRP funds recorded about $1.01 million in inflows across Aug 3-7, with zero daily net inflows on both Aug 7 and Aug 10, while Bitwise cut its XRP holdings by $3.58 million on Aug 6. Bitcoin and Ether products drew hundreds of millions over the same week, leaving XRP without the institutional bid that had underpinned its defense of the $1 floor.
The decline followed a convergence of five distinct pressures. ETF demand evaporated, long liquidations forced the break, XRP Ledger activity collapsed, the CLARITY Act catalyst was removed, and macro positioning turned defensive ahead of US inflation data.
Transactions on the XRP Ledger fell from about 2.81 million on Aug 5 to 1.57 million on Aug 9, a decline of roughly 44 percent in four days. The Senate entered recess without voting on the CLARITY Act, one of XRP's principal narrative supports this year, with the first procedural vote now set for Sept 15 and requiring 60 votes to advance. Polymarket has been assigning a 65 to 68 percent probability of XRP trading at or below $1 during August.
The source material also flags vulnerabilities in cross-chain bridges, with the Coreum bridge exploit highlighting security weaknesses in crypto infrastructure that can weigh on tokens reliant on cross-chain rails.
The daily chart shows XRP trading below its 50-day exponential moving average near $1.0962, which has acted as dynamic resistance since the market lost momentum earlier this year. The 200-day EMA sits much higher at about $1.3691, requiring a gain of roughly 36 percent from current levels merely to test that longer-term trend boundary.
TradingView readings cited in the analysis showed 16 sell signals, 10 neutral readings and no buy signals, with the Relative Strength Index near 33.94 and Stochastic %K at 9.22. XRP trades below the 10-, 20-, 30-, 50-, 100- and 200-period moving averages listed in the analysis.
A confirmed daily close below $1 would expose support near $0.9760, with classic pivot levels at $0.993, $0.926 and $0.764. Finance Magnates analyst Damian Chmiel maps a longer-term decline toward $0.6422 — about 36 percent lower — and $0.4279, roughly 57 percent below Tuesday's price, levels that capped XRP between July and September 2024 before its November breakout.
On the upside, $1.036 is the first reclaim that would repair short-term structure, with the descending trendline near $1.025 needing to break first. A move above $1.06 would mark the first improvement in short-term structure, followed by resistance around $1.08-$1.15, an area that includes several pivot levels and moving averages. The 200-day EMA near $1.37 remains the more important test of the broader trend.
The gap between price and the moving averages also puts bullish institutional forecasts into perspective. Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick previously projected XRP could reach $8 by the end of 2026 under assumptions including substantial ETF inflows — a gain of roughly 696 percent from current levels that the daily chart offers no technical confirmation for while XRP remains below $1.0138, the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA.
XRP's next major move depends on whether buyers can defend the $1 region or sellers convert it into resistance. Until the token reclaims key moving averages and produces stronger momentum signals, the technical picture remains tilted toward downside risk rather than a confirmed bullish reversal.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
