XRP slides as oil tops $100 and 10-year yield hits 4.57%

XRP fell as Brent crude topped $100 a barrel and the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.567%, tightening financial conditions and triggering a broad sell-off in risk assets.

"Rising oil prices and higher bond yields are compressing liquidity for risk assets, and crypto is the most exposed part of the risk spectrum," said Jonathan Raymond, investment manager at Quilter Cheviot. "More expensive fuel and energy can ripple through the wider economy, increasing costs for businesses and ultimately feeding through into the price of food and other goods."

Brent crude surged more than 6% to cross $100 a barrel on Thursday, its first breach of that level since May, as Houthi militia attacks on oil tankers in the Red Sea threatened a key export route used by Saudi Arabia. The US 10-year yield hit 4.567%, its highest level since January 2025, according to Tradeweb data. US gasoline prices have surpassed $4 a gallon, up from $3.92 a month ago, according to AAA. The CME FedWatch tool now prices an 83% chance of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's September meeting, up from 53% one week ago, as the oil-driven inflation shock shifts monetary policy expectations.

XRP and other risk-on crypto assets may face continued selling pressure if oil prices stay elevated and bond yields remain high, as tighter financial conditions reduce appetite for speculative positions. Bitcoin, which often trades in correlation with altcoins during macro-driven selloffs, also declined, dragging the broader crypto market lower. The next key support for XRP sits near $0.38, a level tested during the May selloff, with a break below that opening the door to $0.35.

The macro-driven rout comes as the broader crypto market faces headwinds from rising real yields and a stronger US dollar, which historically have weighed on digital asset prices. With the Fed now expected to tighten rather than ease, the second half of 2026 is shaping up as a challenging environment for altcoins that lack the institutional flow support that Bitcoin receives through spot ETFs. Total crypto market capitalization has fallen as investors rotate out of speculative assets into commodities and short-dated Treasuries offering attractive real yields.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.