Ark Invest buys Coinbase and Circle as Clarity Act faces 40% odds

Cathie Wood's Ark Invest bought 37,153 Coinbase shares and 66,754 Circle shares ahead of a Senate vote on the Clarity Act that could reshape U.S. crypto regulation.

Ark Invest purchased 37,153 shares of Coinbase Global and 66,754 shares of Circle Internet Group in late June, betting the U.S. Senate will pass the Clarity Act before the August recess and unlock a federal regulatory framework for digital assets.

"If we passed the CLARITY Act last summer, many of the things that people are expressing concern about — meme coin issuance, co-investment, use of exchange, investing in exchanges — all that would be under a market framework of regulation with clarity," Rep. French Hill, the Arkansas Republican who chairs the House Financial Services Committee, said in a Fox Business interview.

The bill, which the House approved a year ago with support from 78 Democrats, would define a "mature blockchain," divide regulatory jurisdiction between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and set rules for stablecoin yield. A merged Senate draft has added more than 70 pages of new language emphasizing consumer protections, according to people familiar with the negotiations. Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon this week backed the bill's Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act provisions, which protect developers who do not custody customer assets from being regulated as money transmitters.

The Senate returns July 13 with about three weeks before the August recess. Prediction market Polymarket prices Clarity Act passage in 2026 at about 40%, down from 74% in early May when the Senate Banking Committee advanced its version. Kalshi puts the odds of the bill receiving more than 60 votes at 25%. With 53 Republicans in the chamber, at least seven Democratic votes are needed, and only two Democrats have publicly declared support.

What the Clarity Act Means for Coinbase and Circle

A clear regulatory framework would enable more traditional financial institutions to engage with crypto without fear of regulatory repercussions, expanding the addressable market for Coinbase's exchange and Circle's USDC stablecoin. The bill's stablecoin provisions stop short of allowing yield on idle stablecoins — a concession to banks concerned about deposit runs — but permit rewards tied to transaction activity, which could expand USDC usage.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, appearing alongside Hill on Fox Business, warned that failure to pass the bill would leave rulemaking to regulators. "Otherwise, you end up with regulators like me writing all the rules," Selig said. Coinbase Vice Chair Ryan VanGrack, a former SEC official, described the measure as "on the one-yard line," with senators from both parties "working around the clock to get this across the finish line."

The Ethics Hurdle

The largest unresolved issue remains Democratic demands for stronger ethics restrictions preventing senior government officials, including the president, from maintaining business ties with the crypto industry while in office. Critics point to President Trump's crypto ventures, including $TRUMP meme coin licensing and World Liberty Financial token sales, which a July 1 financial disclosure tied to about $1.4 billion in 2025 income. Hill contends the Clarity Act itself offers the transparency those critics want by bringing all such activity under a federal regulatory framework.

Ark Invest's purchases come as Coinbase shares have sold off alongside the broader crypto market. The firm's 2030 base-case price target for Bitcoin is $700,000, with a bull case of $1.5 million, according to its 2025 Big Ideas report.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.