Bitcoin, Ethereum flash bearish signals as $60,000 and $1,686 targets loom

Bitcoin fell 1.84% to $63,645.74 as a $38 million Coldcard wallet drain and bearish August seasonality pushed it below key moving averages. Ethereum traded near $1,874.78, down 2.50%, with analysts warning of a slide toward $1,686 if support breaks.

"The $60,000 level is the last line of defense," Michaël van de Poppe, an independent crypto analyst, said on X, attributing the breakdown to the wallet drain that swept roughly 594 BTC from about 500 wallets on Thursday.

Options positioning has turned defensive. The $60,000 put, protection against a decline, is now the most popular bet on Deribit with notional open interest of $1.17 billion, CoinDesk data shows. That displaced the $70,000 and $72,000 calls, which fell to $943 million and $888 million respectively after Friday's expiry settled $10 billion in BTC and ether options.

August Seasonality Points Lower

Historical data reinforces the bearish tilt. Since 2013, August has produced a median Bitcoin return of minus 7.49%, CoinGlass data shows, even though the average of 1.12% is skewed by outsized rallies in 2013 and 2017. The record is worse in US midterm-election years: Bitcoin fell 17.55% in August 2014, 9.27% in 2018 and 13.88% in 2022, an average loss of roughly 13.6%. A similar decline from current levels would place Bitcoin near $55,300.

The daily chart adds a technical warning through a potential bear pennant formed after June's sharp decline. A decisive close below the lower boundary, currently around $61,000-$62,000, could confirm the pattern and open a measured downside target near $52,200, an 18% drop from current prices. The setup would weaken if Bitcoin reclaims the $66,000-$67,000 resistance zone on stronger volume.

Macro data will test the levels in August. The July jobs report and inflation readings will shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's September meeting, while the Jackson Hole symposium later in the month could trigger volatility if officials signal rates must stay higher for longer. Renewed US-Iran tensions and higher oil prices would add further pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin.

A confirmed breach of $60,000 would likely accelerate selling across major tokens and trigger leveraged liquidations, with ether's $1,686 level serving as the next key marker for altcoin traders watching the correlation with Bitcoin.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.