Bitcoin recovers above $64K as short-term holders return to accumulation

Bitcoin recovered above $64,000 on Aug. 4, up 1.6% to $64,117, as short-term holders returned to accumulation after panic-selling during the Coldcard-driven decline.

"The panic selling from short-term holders appears to have concluded, with accumulation resuming as prices stabilized above $63,000," Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Research, said. Thorn linked Monday's activity to a fourth suspected Coldcard attack wave, estimating 448.7 BTC moved from 709 possible victim addresses.

The recovery came despite fresh selling disclosures from Strategy, which sold 1,638 BTC for $104.73 million between July 27 and Aug. 2, according to an SEC filing. The company's average sale price of $63,957 compared with its $75,419 average acquisition cost. CryptoQuant data showed transfers below 1 BTC reached 39,600 BTC on Friday, the highest daily total since the FTX collapse in November 2022, suggesting custody migration rather than capitulation.

Bitcoin now sits between key liquidation clusters near $62,000 and $64,100, according to CoinGlass data. A daily close above $64,000 would strengthen the short-term recovery, while failure to hold $63,183 could expose the asset to another test of $62,000 and potentially $60,000.

Coldcard flows look more like migration than capitulation

Galaxy Research's Thorn revised his estimate to cover 448.7 BTC moving from 709 possible victim addresses in the fourth suspected Coldcard attack wave. Adding the fourth estimate to earlier mapped waves produces roughly 1,815.75 BTC across 5,294 addresses, assuming no overlap. Coinkite has not confirmed that total or established whether one operator controlled every wave.

Coinkite said fixed firmware now protects newly generated seeds. However, updating a device does not repair a seed created under vulnerable firmware. Users must generate a completely new seed and transfer their remaining Bitcoin to addresses controlled by it.

CryptoQuant data lends support to the custody migration explanation. Transfers below 1 BTC reached 39,600 BTC on Friday, their highest daily total since the FTX collapse in November 2022. Large transfers do not automatically mean those coins were sold. Some holders may have moved funds to new wallets or exchanges while responding to the security warning.

Strategy sale, miner distribution test $60,000 floor

Strategy disclosed in an Aug. 3 SEC filing that it sold 1,638 BTC between July 27 and Aug. 2 for $104.73 million. The company directed $52.4 million of the proceeds toward preferred stock dividends and $52.3 million toward STRC repurchases. Strategy now holds 842,138 BTC acquired for about $63.51 billion.

Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said, "Strategy is a public company, not my wallet," separating the corporate decision from his personal Bitcoin position.

Analyst Ali Martinez said a retest of $60,000 "could actually be bullish" if it completes the right shoulder of a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern, with $66,500 as the neckline. A confirmed breakout could place $71,000 and $76,000 back in view. Martinez separately estimated that miners sold about 1,774 BTC, worth roughly $112 million, over the past week.

The next test is whether Bitcoin can hold above $63,000 through the U.S. session and then clear the $65,000 to $66,500 resistance band. Failure to retain $63,000 would leave the market vulnerable to another test of $62,250 and possibly $60,000. A clean move through the neckline would provide stronger evidence that buyers have absorbed the Strategy sale, miner distribution and Coldcard-related transfers.

Bitcoin's recovery above $64,000 suggests the market has absorbed the Coldcard-related selling, Strategy's corporate distribution and miner profit-taking without breaking the range that has contained trading since June. The return of short-term holders to accumulation, combined with improving ETF flows noted by Glassnode, points to renewed buying pressure at current levels. However, the concentration of liquidation leverage on both sides of the price makes $62,000 and $64,100 the main boundaries for the next directional move.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.