Ethereum gains 19% in July as ETH/BTC ratio climbs 10%

The ETH/BTC ratio climbed 10% in Q3, with Ethereum gaining 19% in July versus Bitcoin's 8%, as ETF inflows drove capital rotation. ETH touched $1,970 before easing to $1,868 as of press time.

US spot Ethereum ETFs pulled in $365.17 million in July net inflows, their strongest monthly showing this year, versus $172.43 million for Bitcoin ETFs, according to SoSoValue figures cited by CryptoSlate. The reversal follows more than $1 billion in outflows from ETH-focused funds over the prior two months.

Corporate demand reinforced the move. BitMine, the largest corporate holder of Ether, added to its position each week in July, lifting its balance from about 5.70 million ETH to 5.79 million ETH. Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, made no purchases during the month. Morgan Stanley's new Ethereum Trust (MSSE) accumulated about $20 million in its opening days, backed by roughly 16,000 advisers overseeing $7 trillion in client assets.

The question is whether this marks a durable reversal or a rebound from depressed levels. The ETH/BTC MVRV ratio has fallen to 0.65 from 0.95 in August 2025, but previous structural bottoms formed only below 0.45, per CryptoQuant data. Exchange flow ratios sit near 0.8 versus roughly 0.4 at prior turning points.

ETF flows and treasury buying diverge

The July divergence extended beyond spot markets. ETH-focused funds reversed more than $1 billion in outflows from the prior two months, while Bitcoin ETFs posted their weakest monthly total since launching in January 2024. Morgan Stanley's MSSE, carrying a 0.14% fee, adds fresh price competition among Ethereum ETF providers.

BitMine's steady accumulation contrasted with Strategy's pause. The Michael Saylor-led company focused on building cash reserves and supporting its preferred securities after serving as a recurring source of Bitcoin demand earlier in the year.

On-chain signals stop short of a confirmed bottom

Despite July's momentum, key valuation metrics remain above the thresholds tied to past reversals. The ETH/BTC ratio broke above 0.030 for the first time in three months before easing to 0.02962, still roughly 13% lower on the year and about 73% below its 2017 high of 0.11.

Ethereum's exchange supply ratio has dropped to 0.127, the lowest level on record, according to CryptoQuant. Combined with rising institutional demand, the declining liquid supply strengthens the case for continued ETH-led outperformance. But for July's gains to evolve into a lasting reversal, ETH/BTC would need to hold support above 0.030 while valuation and exchange-flow measures keep drifting toward their historical bottoming ranges.

If the 2025 playbook repeats, Ethereum could close Q3 with double-digit gains against Bitcoin. In 2025, ETH closed Q3 up 66.55% — its strongest quarterly rally on record — while Bitcoin returned just 6.31%. With Bitcoin facing its historically weaker August and September window, the odds of Ethereum taking the lead for the rest of Q3 are improving.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.