Futures Rise Ahead of CPI as Oil Jumps 5% on Iran

U.S. futures rose Tuesday, Dow up 71 points, ahead of July CPI as Brent crude held near $88 on the Iran deadlock.

"Volatility could escalate further if the stalemate stretches past this week," said Modupe Adegbembo, oil analyst at Jefferies.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.06 percent to 7,753 on Monday, the Nasdaq 100 retreated 0.3 percent to 26,605, and the Dow Jones eased 0.11 percent to 53,976. Brent crude jumped 4.99 percent to $87.72 a barrel, while WTI rose 5.1 percent to $82.13. The 10-year Treasury yield gained 6.2 basis points to 4.70 percent, lifting the probability of a Fed rate hike to 52 percent. Gold advanced 0.5 percent to $4,409.81 an ounce.

The July CPI report due Wednesday and PPI on Thursday will shape whether the Federal Reserve's next move is a hike or a hold. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could push the probability of a September hike above 50 percent, pressuring equities further.

Energy stocks led Monday's session, while technology and real estate shares trailed. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF fell 2 percent after Intel announced a $15 billion stock sale to fund its $20 billion 2026 capital expenditure program. Nvidia shares ended 2.86 percent lower at $217.55, while SpaceX gained 4 percent following its 911.5 million share lockup expiration.

Oil's 5% Surge Complicates the Inflation Picture

The rally in crude came as negotiations between Washington and Tehran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz hit an impasse. President Donald Trump's demand for compensation from Iran for people killed in wars, attacks and protests hardened the U.S. position, dimming hopes of a near-term breakthrough. Iran has outlined six conditions for a deal and said it will keep the waterway closed unless they are met. Libya's National Oil Corporation is also weighing force majeure at the Zawiya oil terminal after drone attacks destroyed a storage tank holding 4.5 million liters of gasoline, adding to supply concerns. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to levels not seen since 1983, dipping below 300 million barrels.

The NFIB Small Business Index for July came in at 99.8, the highest since August last year, with eight of 10 components showing improvement and 20 percent of owners planning to add jobs in the next three months. Existing home sales for July are expected to tick down to 4.05 million seasonally adjusted annualized units, down for a second straight month from a near-term high of 4.19 million in May.

Earnings and Semiconductors in Focus

Super Micro Computer is expected to report 65.85 percent EPS growth and 91 percent revenue growth after the close, while CoreWeave is anticipated to post a 333 percent earnings decline on 109 percent revenue growth. Cava Group is expected to report 12.5 percent EPS growth on 25.9 percent revenue growth. Cardinal Health posted mixed fiscal Q4 results, beating earnings expectations by 20 percent to $2.91 per share on revenue of $63.67 billion, which missed consensus by 2.96 percent. Intel shares have nearly tripled this year, outpacing AMD and Nvidia, as investors bet on the company's foundry expansion. The $15 billion offering represents about 75 percent of Intel's planned 2026 capital expenditure and results in roughly 3 percent share dilution.

Asian markets traded mixed, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up 0.2 percent and South Korea's Kospi adding 0.3 percent. The yen remained under pressure at levels weaker than 159 per dollar, while the euro held at $1.1546.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.