Oklo stock plunges 75% as nuclear startup awaits NRC approval

Sam Altman-backed nuclear startup Oklo has lost 75% of its market value in less than a year, falling from $25 billion to $7.6 billion, as investors confront the gap between AI data center hype and the reality of unapproved reactor technology.

Oklo, the nuclear energy startup chaired by OpenAI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman, is designing small modular reactors — factory-built units typically under 300 megawatts — that could directly power AI data centers without connecting to the electric grid. The company has signed a large agreement with Meta Platforms and is working with the Department of Energy on a pilot reactor in Idaho. Yet its design has not received full approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and the company generated zero revenue over the past 12 months.

"The timeline from design approval to commercial operation for a first-of-kind SMR is measured in years, not quarters," said Omar Tariq, an energy analyst. "Oklo's current valuation of $7.6 billion implies successful commercialization, but the company has yet to clear the most basic regulatory hurdle."

Oklo reported negative free cash flow of $154 million over the last 12 months, a figure that will likely worsen as the business scales up manufacturing for its planned reactor fleet. The company's isotope business, which produces medical and industrial isotopes, is generating only negligible revenue and offers no near-term path to profitability. At its peak in 2025, Oklo commanded a market capitalization of roughly $25 billion, driven by bullish enthusiasm over the power needs of AI data centers.

The Regulatory Gap Between Hype and Reality

Nuclear energy has emerged as a potential solution for power-hungry AI data centers without raising residential electric bills. Companies like Oklo aim to build and operate their own nuclear power facilities, selling electricity directly to hyperscalers such as Meta Platforms under long-term contracts worth billions of dollars annually. But the path to commercial operation requires NRC design certification, a construction permit, and an operating license — a process that has historically taken a decade or more for conventional reactors.

Oklo's Aurora reactor design uses HALEU fuel — uranium enriched to 19.75%, compared with 3% to 5% for conventional reactors — which itself faces supply chain constraints. The company's pilot project in Idaho, developed in partnership with the DOE, is intended to demonstrate the technology and pave the way for regulatory approval. Until that approval comes, Oklo remains a pre-revenue company with a market cap that implies billions in future earnings.

What the Valuation Means for Investors

At $7.6 billion, Oklo trades at a valuation that would require years of successful commercial operations to justify. For context, Constellation Energy, the largest US nuclear operator with a fleet of working reactors, has a market cap of roughly $80 billion and generates billions in annual revenue. Oklo, with zero revenue and an unproven design, is valued at nearly 10% of Constellation's market capitalization.

The stock's 75% decline from its peak reflects a repricing of risk as investors recognize the gap between AI data center power demand and the timeline for new nuclear capacity. Even after the collapse, the shares could fall further if regulatory delays push commercial operations beyond the current 2030 target. Altman, whose personal stake in Oklo is worth hundreds of millions of dollars on paper, has the financial resources to support the company through a prolonged development phase. But for public market investors, the risk-reward equation remains heavily skewed toward the downside.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.