Options traders bet $550M against Tesla ahead of July 22 earnings

Options traders piled $550 million in bearish bets against Tesla shares ahead of the company's July 22 earnings report, CNBC's options desk estimated.

"The options market is pricing in an implied move of about 7% in either direction, with positioning slightly more bearish than usual," Mike Khouw, options analyst at CNBC, said.

For the Sept. 18 expiry, put volume totaled 61,128 contracts versus 19,591 calls, a 3.12-to-1 put/call ratio. One notable trade was the September 400/300 put spread, which traded roughly 6,000 contracts at about $35 per spread. The day's activity translated into roughly $550 million of net short delta exposure, Khouw estimated.

The bearish positioning reflects growing skepticism about Tesla's valuation and growth trajectory. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings multiple near 377, even as full-year 2025 net income fell 47 percent to $3.79 billion and vehicle deliveries declined 9 percent year over year.

On CNBC's Fast Money segment, the panel argued the Elon Musk premium built into Tesla's stock is thinning. One trader said Tesla had been trading as a cheaper listed proxy for SpaceX, a trade now unwinding. Another panelist added that "the magic of Elon too is starting to dissipate" as robotaxi and humanoid robot milestones keep slipping.

Jim Cramer highlighted the deteriorating earnings trend, noting Tesla's EPS peaked at $4.07 in 2022 before declining 23 percent in 2023, 22 percent in 2024 and another 31 percent in 2025. The first quarter of 2026 provided some relief, with revenue rising 15.8 percent year over year to $22.39 billion and automotive gross margin recovering to 21.1 percent, helped in part by one-time warranty and tariff benefits.

The competitive landscape is also shifting. Rivian Automotive Inc. is beginning external deliveries of its R2 mid-size SUV, positioned directly against Tesla's Model Y. Rivian's Q1 revenue rose 11 percent to $1.381 billion, with deliveries up 20 percent to 10,365 vehicles. The company has access to a Department of Energy loan of up to $4.5 billion for its Georgia plant and an Uber partnership supporting deployment of up to 50,000 autonomous R2 robotaxis.

The $550 million bearish bet signals institutional expectations of a disappointing Q2 report or cautious guidance. Tesla's results on July 22 will determine whether the options market's defensive posture was prescient or premature.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.