Trump eyes Tuesday Hormuz reopening as Brent steadies near $84

Conflicting accounts from Washington and Tehran leave the Strait of Hormuz's reopening — and global oil prices — hanging on a Tuesday deadline.

President Donald Trump said talks with Iran could fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday, restoring passage for roughly one-fifth of global oil trade, while Tehran denies any direct negotiations with Washington.

"We are talking about the strait — the opening of the strait, having it open literally by tomorrow, completely open, and that's Phase 1," Trump told reporters at the White House Monday. "Phase 2 is we then will talk about the nuclear capacity. They cannot have a nuclear weapon."

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei rejected the claim, saying Iran's only confirmed discussions are with Oman over a temporary shipping corridor. "We are not currently holding negotiations with the United States," Baghaei said. Brent crude traded at $83.91 a barrel and New York futures at $80.33 Tuesday morning, little changed after Brent fell nearly 7 percent Monday when Trump suspended planned strikes.

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption, and its closure since Feb. 28 has pushed U.S. gasoline prices to a $4.10 national average — more than $1 above pre-conflict levels. Trump said the U.S. naval blockade would remain until "a deal or total surrender is accomplished," while describing the talks as Iran's "last chance."

Diplomacy vs. Denial

Trump said negotiations were "going on right now," claiming Iran does not like to admit it is in talks with the United States "even though they spent hours and hours together talking." He said the talks were requested by Iran with the backing of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, and that he had called off planned strikes — which he described as "the biggest attack since World War II" — at the urging of Gulf leaders including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. "I said to the crown prince, 'What would you rather do? Would you rather us do this or not?'" Trump told reporters on Air Force One. "They said we would much prefer a deal as opposed to an attack, because you don't know where these attacks lead."

CBS News, citing U.S. officials, reported no new formal negotiations had been scheduled despite Trump's public comments, with existing indirect contacts continuing through intermediaries including U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. A senior Iranian source told Reuters that no negotiations were planned and that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, visiting Iraq, would be unavailable until at least the end of the week. Diplomatic activity nevertheless intensified across the region, with Araghchi holding separate calls with his Omani, Saudi, Pakistani and Iraqi counterparts.

Iran's discussions with Oman center on a temporary safe route through the strait, but Baghaei said reaching an understanding with Muscat "would in no way" amount to reopening the waterway. He said the strait "will in no way return to the status it was before February 28th." A June memorandum aimed at reopening the strait and addressing hostilities faced repeated setbacks over compliance and sequencing of nuclear talks, according to Gulf News.

Oil Market at a Crossroads

The diplomatic uncertainty has left oil markets in a holding pattern. Brent crude at $83.91 and New York futures at $80.33 reflect a sharp retreat from the spike that followed the Feb. 28 outbreak of hostilities, when the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran. The closure of the strait has also driven U.S. gasoline prices to $4.10 nationally, according to AAA.

Trump said he would not allow Iran to charge transit fees on vessels using the strait, insisting the United States has "total" control of the waterway through its naval blockade, which he called the "U.S. wall of steel." U.S. Central Command said it had redirected 44 commercial vessels, disabled two vessels and boarded two others while enforcing the blockade.

The last time the strait faced a sustained closure threat was during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, when tanker attacks and mining drove up insurance rates and forced naval escorts. The current crisis has already disrupted energy flows for five months, with shipping through the strait remaining sharply reduced compared with pre-conflict levels. Oil prices fell sharply Monday after Trump suspended the planned strikes, with Brent dropping nearly 7 percent, though the conflicting statements from Tehran have kept the geopolitical risk premium intact.

Trump said he expected negotiations to resume "tomorrow afternoon" and described the current round as Iran's final opportunity. "I want to give them every last chance before decapitation," he said. If talks fail, Trump warned, Iran will not secure a more favorable agreement. The reopening of the strait has been a key issue for energy-importing economies across Asia, including South Korea and Japan, which rely heavily on the waterway for crude shipments.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.