Trump to meet crypto leaders as CLARITY Act odds fall to 10%

President Donald Trump is expected to meet Coinbase, Ripple and other crypto executives at the White House on August 19, as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act faces a 10% chance of becoming law in 2026, according to Galaxy Digital.

"Clarity Act passage remains a possibility, but we are firmly in 'circus trick' territory — if it is to pass in 2026, we need magic," Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, said in an X post.

Polymarket traders assign the bill roughly a 19% probability of being signed into law this year, down from an 82% peak on February 19. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the legislation 15-9 on May 14, and the House approved H.R. 3633 by 294-134 in July 2025, but negotiations have since fractured over stablecoin rewards, illicit-finance measures and an ethics framework tied to Trump's crypto businesses.

The gathering brings together SEC Chair Paul Atkins, CFTC Chair Michael Selig and executives from companies that have spent years lobbying for federal crypto rules, less than a month before the Senate returns September 14 to face a procedural vote on the bill. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has filed cloture on the motion to proceed, but lawmakers have only about three weeks of session before leaving Washington around October 2 for midterm campaigning.

Ethics dispute stalls a once-bipartisan bill

The CLARITY Act entered the summer with rare bipartisan support. The Senate Banking Committee advanced it 15-9 on May 14, with Democratic Senators Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks joining all 13 Republicans. The House had already passed H.R. 3633 by 294-134 in July 2025, with 78 Democrats in favor.

Negotiations deteriorated over restrictions on crypto activities by senior government officials, limits on stablecoin rewards and measures to prevent illicit finance. Traditional banks, including Citigroup, have pressed lawmakers to restrict yield-bearing stablecoin products, warning they could pull deposits from the banking system. Citigroup chief executive Jane Fraser said she wants to see the bill pass but remains concerned about its treatment of stablecoin rewards.

The most difficult issue has become the ethics debate surrounding Trump's crypto-related businesses. A bipartisan group of senators sent the White House a proposed ethics framework on July 30, but the administration has not publicly agreed to it. Without a compromise, Galaxy said supporters may have no viable path to the 60 Senate votes needed to advance the bill.

SEC and CFTC move ahead without Congress

While the bill stalls, both agencies are using existing authority to shape crypto policy. The SEC under Chair Paul Atkins has been developing Reg Crypto, a framework for certain crypto offerings, and an Innovation Exemption allowing limited experimentation with tokenized securities. The commission canceled an August 14 vote on the crypto-offering proposal without setting a new date.

The CFTC is moving more aggressively. Chair Michael Selig has argued regulators need direct input from companies building new financial products. The agency convenes its first Innovation Advisory Committee meeting on August 20, a day after the White House gathering. On August 11, the CFTC invoked emergency authority after Kalshi warned that a New York lawsuit could disrupt its federally regulated event-contract market.

Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said the crypto industry wants the CLARITY Act to go through, describing the bill as the sector's clearest path to a permanent federal framework. But with prediction-market odds near 19% and Galaxy's estimate at 10%, the industry's biggest legislative priority now hinges on whether the August 19 meeting can break the political deadlock before the Senate returns September 14.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.