Key Takeaways:
XPeng's Hong Kong shares fell 9.5% Tuesday after the EV maker guided third-quarter revenue of RMB21.7-23.4 billion, roughly 15% below consensus.
"The delivery outlook was likely affected primarily by disruptions to the L03 ramp-up caused by supply-chain constraints," Citi analysts said.
XPeng reported a Q2 net loss of RMB1.34 billion ($199 million), nearly triple the RMB480 million loss a year earlier. Total revenue rose 8% year on year to RMB19.74 billion, missing the RMB20.57 billion consensus. Vehicle margin fell to 12.1% from 14.3%, which management attributed to a product-generation transition. Adjusted loss per ADS was RMB1.29, versus the RMB0.91 consensus.
The stock has lost more than 45% of its value in both Hong Kong and US trading this year. XPeng delivered 103,295 vehicles in Q2, up just 0.1% year on year, and first-half deliveries of about 166,000 units were down 15.8%. Reaching the low end of its 550,000-unit annual target requires an average of 69,199 deliveries per month from August through December — 39% above its all-time monthly record.
The weak guidance comes as XPeng counts on its new mass-market L03 coupe SUV to accelerate volumes in the second half. The model attracted strong orders since its July 16 global launch, but production is still ramping. Nomura analysts said the revenue guidance implies a stable average selling price of around RMB165,000 per vehicle, with a more meaningful recovery expected in Q4 if capacity bottlenecks resolve.
Hours before reporting earnings, XPeng announced its robotics subsidiary Dogotix had raised over $900 million at a post-money valuation above $6.3 billion. IDG Capital led the round, with participation from Gaorong Ventures and strategic support from Tencent and Alibaba. The company said it was the largest single-round private financing in China's embodied AI industry. XPeng will retain controlling ownership and continue consolidating the robotics business.
The funding supports mass production of the IRON humanoid robot by end-2026, with commercial deliveries planned from 2027. The robot features 76 degrees of freedom across the body and 21 in each hand, powered by three Turing AI chips delivering up to 2,250 TOPS of computing power.
Analysts have turned more cautious. Tiger Securities cut its price target to $15 from $20, retaining a Hold rating. Macquarie maintained Outperform but lowered its target to $18. Bernstein SocGen cut its target to $18 from $20, keeping Market Perform. XPeng's US-listed shares traded at $11.15.
The company is also expanding overseas. XPeng shipped a record 9,700 vehicles and kits in July, up 223.3% year on year, with exports reaching 25.5% of total wholesale volume. Overseas revenue exceeded 25% of total in the first half, with export ASPs above €40,000.
The Q3 guidance compounds doubts about XPeng's 2026 target of 550,000-600,000 global deliveries. Cumulative deliveries through July reached 204,004 vehicles, down 12.8% year on year. CEO He Xiaopeng said monthly deliveries should exceed 60,000 in Q4 with the launch of four new SUV models, including the G9L in September and the Mona L05 in Q4.
Compared with BYD, which has deeper manufacturing scale and broader model coverage, XPeng's execution risk is higher as it navigates the L03 ramp. The selloff shows investors are repricing XPeng from a demand story to an execution story. The key question is whether L03 production bottlenecks clear in time to deliver the promised Q4 acceleration.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
