XRP declined to $2.94 due to institutional selling, high exchange reserves, and traders' evaluation of upcoming ETF decisions and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Market Downturn

XRP experienced a downturn, closing at $2.94 after failing to sustain gains above $3.00, influenced by significant institutional selling. Heightened volatility marked the past few days, with a 24-hour range between $2.85 and $2.97. Trading volume remained high at $7.18 billion, indicating active repositioning by both retail and institutional traders.

Institutional Influence and On-Chain Activity

Large-scale offloading by institutional investors contributed to a 1.58% decline in XRP's price, moving from $2.95 to $2.90 within 24 hours. Low on-chain activity exacerbated the downward pressure, reducing the capacity to absorb the selling. Despite the recent downturn, XRP has gained 3.28% over the past week, suggesting buyer interest at lower levels. XRP spot netflows are approximately $12.7 million, according to Coinglass data, indicating measured accumulation during the pullback.

Technical Analysis

XRP is currently compressing within a descending symmetrical triangle, trading between $2.86 support and $3.12 resistance. A breakout above $3.12 could potentially drive XRP towards $3.25–$3.40, while a breach below $2.80 may accelerate losses to $2.74 and potentially $2.68.

Federal Reserve and ETF Catalysts

Market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the September 16-17 meeting are influencing XRP's price. Fed futures indicate a 99% probability of at least a 25-basis point rate cut. The SEC is expected to make decisions on several pending XRP spot ETF applications in October 2025, including Grayscale's bid to convert its XRP Trust into a spot ETF, with a final ruling expected by October 18, 2025. Deadlines for rulings on the 21Shares XRP ETF, Bitwise XRP ETF, and Canary Capital XRP ETF applications are also in October 2025.

Exchange Reserves and Selling Pressure

Rising XRP reserves on exchanges, particularly Binance, indicate increasing selling pressure. Binance's XRP holdings increased from 2.92 billion to 3.6 billion XRP as of September 3. The accumulation of XRP on exchanges follows profit-taking by large holders, potentially diminishing investor confidence. Over 2.1 million XRP entered Binance, signaling persistent selling pressure.

Market Outlook

Analysts highlight the $2.7–$2.8 range as a critical support zone for XRP in September. A breakout from this level in either direction could define the trend for the next quarter. Conservative price targets for 2025 are $3.30–$3.60, while bullish scenarios project $5.50–$15.00, contingent on ETF approvals, regulatory clarity, and continued banking adoption. Technical analysis suggests a potential range of $3.30–$4.70 for XRP in the short to mid-term if it can sustain upward momentum.