Bitcoin climbs above $64,000 as Iran deal hopes lift risk appetite

Bitcoin traded near $64,200, up 0.4 percent, as Qatar's mediation of US-Iran talks eased geopolitical risk and oil prices fell. The token recovered from an intraday low near $63,300, extending a rebound off the $62,400-$62,500 support zone that has held since Aug. 1, with 24-hour volume at $23.3 billion and market cap at $1.29 trillion, per CoinGecko.

"A four-hour close above $64,300 could confirm the breakout and open the door to a rally toward $65,500 or even $66,500," Ali Martinez, a crypto chart analyst, said on X.

The daily Relative Strength Index stood at 50.30, with Aroon Up at 78.57 percent and Aroon Down at zero, showing recent highs are gaining relevance. Bitcoin closed above the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement at $63,496, with the 78.6 percent level at $65,026 as the next target. Order-book data shared by analyst Ted Pillows showed large sell orders between $64,000 and $65,000, a supply wall that has capped rallies.

The week's US jobs data will decide whether $62,000 holds or becomes a trapdoor toward $60,000. A soft JOLTS report Tuesday and moderate payrolls Friday would clear the path to $65,000, while a hot print would validate the three Fed officials who voted for a rate hike at the July 29 meeting.

Hormuz talks and the macro backdrop

Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari said Doha wanted conditions in the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal, with Qatar, Pakistan and Oman exchanging proposals between Washington and Tehran. The diplomatic push has eased concerns over global energy supplies, with oil falling roughly 5 percent Monday as President Donald Trump held off a fresh strike on Iran and OPEC+ approved a September output increase of about 188,000 barrels a day.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI printed 55.6 on Aug. 3, beating the 54.0 consensus and rising from June's 53.3, with prices paid holding at 71.1. The strong reading keeps the inflation case alive and hands ammunition to the three Fed officials — Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan — who wanted a 25-basis-point hike at the July 29 meeting.

Levels to watch

Bitcoin remains inside a broader consolidation range between roughly $57,868 and $66,975. A daily close above $65,026 would strengthen the short-term recovery, with the July high near $66,975 as the larger breakout level. On the downside, a loss of $63,500 could expose $62,421, followed by the liquidation cluster near $62,000, where the one-week heatmap from CoinGlass shows the brightest liquidity band below current price.

Trader KillaXBT flagged Aug. 14 as the next key date, a period that has coincided with major directional moves in 8 of the last 10 instances, with a test of $60,000 a likely scenario if the recovery stalls.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.