Oil near $72 as US, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar plan four-way call

A four-way phone call between the US, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar may signal the first diplomatic breakthrough since the Strait of Hormuz ceasefire collapsed.

Unconfirmed reports of a four-way phone call between the United States, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar emerged late Thursday, raising the prospect of renewed diplomacy after a week of escalating strikes pushed crude above $72 a barrel.

"A lasting peace agreement is a must for the normalisation in oil markets," the International Energy Agency said in a monthly report Friday, warning that renewed exchanges of fire in the Gulf highlight the risks of not reaching a deal.

Crude oil traded at $72.15 a barrel Friday morning, on track for a weekly gain of nearly 5 percent, according to Trading Economics. The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline inched up to $3.88, AAA data show. The moves follow a week of back-and-forth strikes: the US military hit 90 targets across Iran, while Tehran retaliated with missiles targeting US allies in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan. At least 14 people were killed and 78 wounded in Iran, the country's Health Ministry said.

The Strait of Hormuz handles about a fifth of the world's traded oil and natural gas, and traffic has only partially recovered since a tentative ceasefire last month reopened the waterway. Preliminary data from Lloyd's List Intelligence show 576 ships transited the strait in June, up from 233 in May but still far below the 3,100 that passed through in June 2025 before the war began. Any collapse in diplomacy could halt shipments again, driving prices higher and threatening the global economic recovery the IEA projects.

The last time US-Iran hostilities escalated to this level, in late February, oil prices surged more than 30 percent within two weeks as tanker traffic through the strait ground to a halt. Brent crude peaked at $96 before the ceasefire in April brought prices back below $70. The current standoff has already erased some of those gains, with crude up 5 percent this week alone.

Saudi sources indicated late Thursday that the four-way call could take place as soon as Friday, though no party has officially confirmed the arrangement. The outreach follows a phone conversation between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and his Saudi, Turkish and Omani counterparts, as well as Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, who has been a key mediator. The diplomatic flurry suggests both sides may be seeking an off-ramp after President Donald Trump declared the interim ceasefire agreement "over" Wednesday, following Iranian attacks on three tankers in the strait.

Oil Markets Price In Diplomatic Risk

Options markets are pricing elevated tail risk. The IEA's baseline forecast assumes a gradual recovery in tanker flows through the strait, but the agency explicitly warned that renewed hostilities could flip its projected surplus into a deficit. US officials said technical talks with Iran continue despite Trump's public remarks, with one official telling USA TODAY that "the United States is still committed to finding a resolution." Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf struck a more defiant tone, posting on X that "if you strike, you'll get hit," though the parallel diplomatic track suggests room for negotiation.

If the four-way call proceeds and leads to a renewed ceasefire framework, oil prices could retreat toward $65 as the risk premium unwinds. If talks fail or attacks resume, Brent could test $80, with the IEA warning that the global oil market balance — currently projected to swing back to surplus by year-end — would tighten significantly. The next scheduled round of final-deal negotiations was due to begin after the funeral of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was buried Thursday in Mashhad.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.