Ray Dalio keeps 1% in Bitcoin as gold wins safe-haven bet

Ray Dalio holds just 1 percent of his portfolio in Bitcoin, calling gold the better diversifier as the XAU/BTC ratio climbs 7.5 percent.

Bitcoin fell 3.5 percent to $63,700 over two weeks as Ray Dalio favored gold over the token, lifting the XAU/BTC ratio 7.5 percent.

"Gold is the only long-term historic asset for reasons," Dalio said on the "Diary of a CEO" podcast on July 30. The Bridgewater Associates founder said gold cannot be printed, is globally recognized, and transfers across borders without relying on a counterparty's promise.

Dalio said gold should account for 5 percent to 15 percent of an investment portfolio, while Bitcoin makes up just 1 percent of his own holdings. He cited quantum computing threats, government monitoring, and taxation as risks to the token. Gold traded at $4,054.54, up more than 20 percent in a year, while Bitcoin has lost 45 percent over the same period.

The endorsement comes as Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $170 million on Aug. 3, according to SoSoValue, with BTC defending support at the 50-day SMA of $63,309. A close above the 150-day SMA of $69,537 would signal a short-term bullish turn, while Dalio's hard-money tilt reinforces a rotation toward gold as U.S. fiscal pressures mount.

Dalio's 1 Percent Bitcoin Stake Reflects a Hard-Money Framework

Dalio's allocation has stayed at 1 percent since he first disclosed the figure in November 2025. His argument rests on the distinction between fiat currency, which he calls a promise from a central authority that can be devalued by printing, and assets with limited supply that hold value. He has also called cash the "worst" long-term investment, estimating inflation at 3.5 percent to 4 percent, close to the U.S. Consumer Price Index reading of 3.5 percent for the year through June 2026.

Gold has climbed 126 percent over the past five years as inflation eroded dollar purchasing power. Dalio told CNBC last year that people typically do not hold enough gold, and that it works as an effective diversifier when markets turn.

Quantum Computing and Government Oversight Shape the Caution

Dalio's caution on Bitcoin centers on two structural risks. Quantum computing could eventually threaten the cryptography underpinning the network, he said, while governments can monitor transactions on a public ledger and tax the holdings. He has argued that no central bank will embrace an asset running on a public ledger.

The XAU/BTC ratio's 7.5 percent climb between July 21 and Aug. 4 came as easing U.S.-Iran tensions lifted gold above $4,000, while Bitcoin dropped from $66,000 to $63,700 after a hack on the Coldcard wallet. The divergence shows the rotation Dalio describes, even as the ADX line suggests the gold trend is not yet strong.

For investors, Dalio's stance reinforces a portfolio tilt toward hard-money assets as U.S. fiscal deficits widen and the AI sector shows signs of a bubble, with leveraged retail positions and rising interest rates. Bitcoin's path depends on whether ETF inflows, which reached $170 million on Aug. 3, can push the token through resistance at $69,537, while gold's momentum above $4,000 keeps the XAU/BTC ratio elevated.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.