Middle East producers are running a covert shuttle trade through the Strait of Hormuz that has quietly become the market's most important supply buffer.
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Covert Hormuz oil trade keeps Brent at $80-90 despite Iran war
Covert oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are running above 4 million barrels a day, keeping Brent crude between $80 and $90 a barrel as the Iran war enters its fourth month. The volumes exceed market estimates, and the trade has become a central pillar of global supply stability that few outside the industry fully appreciate.
"It's a dark trade. It's the only option right now as not all owners are willing to take the risk," Pankaj Khanna, chief executive officer of Heidmar Maritime Holdings Corp., said.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said last week that 9 million barrels a day crossed Hormuz over the previous seven days — nearly half the 20 million barrels that transited daily before the war. Satellite data from the EU's Sentinel 1 shows roughly 150 vessels now anchored off Oman's coast, up from about 40 in January, many waiting to receive cargo from tankers running dark through the strait. Oil market researcher Rory Johnston estimated average volumes peaked at 7 million barrels a day over the past week, acknowledging the figure could be higher given the uncertainty around dark transits.
The arrangement is fragile. Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. has had 23 vessels attacked while transiting Hormuz, killing one crew member and injuring 20, yet has sold about 135 million barrels and launched another sales round last week. Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait have all moved barrels through the shuttle system, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, Kpler and Vortexa. Saudi Arabia's tanker company Bahri has positioned 16 supertankers off Oman capable of hauling 38 million barrels, with three more on the way, suggesting Riyadh may join the shuttle trade.
The Price of 4 Million Barrels a Day
The trade has not come without casualties. Multiple seafarers have died transiting Hormuz, and satellite imagery has captured oil spills in the Gulf of Oman with no clear origin — a quiet reminder of what clandestine trade looks like when something goes wrong. People with knowledge of Hormuz transits said there have been more incidents involving vessels than publicly recognized, including attacks on merchant ships and defensive actions by Western forces targeting vessels that harass freighters.
The shuttle trade is one of several buffers keeping prices contained. Pipeline workarounds are moving an additional 4 million to 7 million barrels a day, according to Wright and Johnston's estimates, while strategic stockpile releases and softer global demand have also suppressed prices. Together, these factors have kept Brent far from the $150 level some traders braced for when the conflict began, and have eased fears of an energy-driven inflation spike.
Saudi Arabia's Quiet Build-Up
Saudi Arabia has not yet shuttled large volumes of its own barrels, but there are tentative signs of more activity from its Gulf ports. Two ships were seen loading at the kingdom's Ras Tanura export hub last week, while Bahri has been steadily positioning vessels off Oman's coast. The 16 supertankers now there, with three more arriving in the coming days, collectively can haul 38 million barrels — a potential supply cushion if Riyadh follows the UAE, Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait into the shuttle trade.
The market's calm rests on a precarious foundation. The shuttle system depends on continued military tolerance, insurers staying willing to underwrite the risk, and producers absorbing losses that would be unthinkable in peacetime. Any meaningful slowdown in these flows — whether from escalating attacks or insurers pulling back cover — would remove that buffer quickly and could reintroduce the kind of upside price risk markets assumed away months ago.
The US naval blockade has simultaneously cut off Iran's own oil exports through Hormuz, depriving Tehran of a vital revenue lifeline. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has promised "economic isolation like the world has never seen before" as Washington squeezes Iran's economy. The question for oil markets is how long the shuttle trade can sustain itself — and what happens when it can't.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] 4 Million Barrels Per Day! The Energy Lifeline Under Fire: Middle East Oil Producers Stabilize Global Oil Prices with 'Dark Shipping'[2] Bloomberg says dark trade oil shuttles are the reason Iran war hasn't spiked oil prices[3] Oil prices held in check by covert shipments from Middle East | RBC-Ukraine[4] Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is shut down. Trump says 9 ...[5] Covert Mideast Oil Flows Are Keeping Global Prices In Check
