Key Takeaways:
China's drug regulator accepted Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy application Thursday, opening a GLP-1 weight-loss market projected at 30 billion yuan ($4.46 billion).
GLP-1 weight-management sales in China could reach 30 billion yuan ($4.46 billion) within five to seven years, up from 3 billion to 4 billion yuan at present, Yang Huang, J.P. Morgan's head of China healthcare research, said.
The filing puts Novo behind Eli Lilly, which submitted its oral orforglipron application to China's National Medical Products Administration at the end of 2025 and could launch as soon as this year, an executive at the U.S. drugmaker told Reuters. Novo has already received approval for the Wegovy pill in the U.S. and Britain, launching in the U.S. this year. Lilly secured U.S. approval for orforglipron in April. Both drugs belong to the GLP-1 class, which mimics a gut hormone to curb appetite and regulate blood sugar in patients with diabetes.
China's National Health Commission projects that more than 65 percent of the population could be overweight or obese by 2030. Both Novo and Lilly believe oral formulations will attract patients reluctant to use injections. Pfizer and local firm Innovent Biologics are also competing for market share with once-weekly GLP-1 weight-loss injections in China.
Novo did not immediately respond to a request for comment on how long China's approval for the Wegovy pill might take. The application acceptance marks a key regulatory milestone in the world's second-largest pharmaceutical market, where demand for weight-loss therapies is accelerating as obesity rates climb.
The acceptance gives Novo a path to compete in a market that J.P. Morgan estimates could grow roughly tenfold from current levels. Investors will watch for the NMPA's approval timeline and whether Lilly's orforglipron reaches Chinese patients first, which would determine early market share in the oral GLP-1 segment. At an exchange rate of $1 = 6.7209 yuan, the projected 30 billion yuan market translates to roughly $4.46 billion in annual sales potential.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
