Key Takeaways
A $5.66 million XRP purchase by Franklin Templeton ETF clients and a rare monthly TD Sequential buy signal are converging on the same thesis: the year-long downtrend may be exhausting itself.
XRP rose 3.8% to $1.13 as of 09:30 UTC on July 22, after Franklin Templeton ETF clients accumulated $5.66 million worth of the token, according to data cited by market monitors. The purchase comes as a TD Sequential buy signal completed on XRP's monthly chart — a pattern that has appeared only a handful of times in the token's history and historically preceded trend reversals.
"The monthly TD Sequential '9' on XRP is a signal that the selling pressure has exhausted itself," Ali Martinez, a crypto analyst who flagged the setup on X, said. "If XRP breaks above $1.13, the path opens toward $1.30 to $1.35, representing a 15% to 20% move from current levels."
The TD Sequential, developed by trader Tom DeMark, counts consecutive candles that close lower than the candle four periods earlier. A "9" on the monthly chart means nine straight months of declining relative closes — an extended stretch of selling that often marks trend exhaustion. The signal carries more weight on higher timeframes; monthly completions on assets of XRP's market cap are infrequent and have historically preceded meaningful bounces.
Supporting the setup, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence has flipped to a buy reading, and the Relative Strength Index has recovered to 53, climbing out of oversold territory. On-chain data from CoinGecko shows XRP's 24-hour trading volume at $1.29 billion, up from the prior day. Polymarket data assigns a 43% probability to XRP settling near $1.20 by Aug. 1, with a 34% chance of slipping back below $1.
The $1.18 Supply Wall and What Comes After
XRP's recovery path runs through two distinct barriers. The first sits at $1.13, where the 50-day moving average converges with a level that has capped rallies since June. Above that, roughly 22.8 million XRP were purchased between $1.18 and $1.19, with another 27.4 million clustered at $1.21 to $1.22, according to Martinez's analysis of on-chain cost-basis data. Those bands represent underwater holders returning to break-even — a natural source of selling pressure that must be absorbed for the rally to extend.
If XRP clears both hurdles, the next target zone opens at $1.30 to $1.35, a range the token defended through the first half of the year before breaking down in June.
The institutional bid is also broadening beyond the Franklin Templeton purchase. Spot XRP exchange-traded products have drawn cumulative inflows of $1.48 billion through early July, and XRP holdings on Binance have declined to their lowest level since February before stabilizing — a pattern some analysts interpret as tokens moving into private wallets rather than sitting ready for sale.
Regulatory Tailwinds and Network Upgrades
The CLARITY Act, which would permanently classify XRP as a digital commodity under US law, remains a potential catalyst for institutional buying. The bill has cleared procedural hurdles in the Senate but faces an uncertain timeline after an ethics provision dispute dragged Polymarket approval odds below 40%. If passed, the legislation would lock in the SEC and CFTC's existing classification, removing the regulatory overhang that has kept some institutional allocators on the sidelines.
Separately, the XRP Ledger is advancing a bundled maintenance upgrade called fixCleanup3_2_0, which has cleared the validator approval threshold and entered a two-week activation countdown. The upgrade, scheduled for July 29, addresses rounding and precision issues in the network's lending and asset vault systems. Roughly 86% of validators are currently in favor.
The convergence of institutional flows, a rare technical signal, and a clearing regulatory path gives XRP a setup that looks more constructive than at any point since its February breakdown below $1.60. But the chart remains unconfirmed until price action validates what the signals are suggesting. A failure to hold above $1.13 in the coming sessions would reset the thesis and put the $1.00 psychological floor back in play.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
