XRP spot volume sinks 51% as derivatives leverage hits 2-month high

XRP spot market activity is fading across two major trading venues even as traders build leveraged positions in derivatives markets.

"The leverage build isn't being driven by aggressive one-sided speculation, but rather a slow repositioning process occurring largely without spot participants at the table," CryptoOnchain, an on-chain analyst, said.

Trading volumes on South Korea's Upbit have declined for four consecutive weeks, falling from roughly 530 million XRP in late June to 258 million by mid-July — a drop of about 51%. The token is trading about 1.1% below its global fair value on the exchange, and the disappearance of the Kimchi premium, a price premium that has historically reflected strong retail demand in South Korea, further points to declining local interest.

The slowdown is also evident on Binance. Exchange-based inflows and outflows both plunged by roughly 99% over the past week, while the number of deposit addresses fell 97.6% compared with the weekly average, according to CryptoOnchain.

Whale Activity Slows on Binance

XRP whale inflows into Binance have fallen to their lowest level in two months, according to CryptoQuant. The 30-day total of whale inflows dropped to about 947.4 million XRP, down 34.4% from a peak of roughly 1.445 billion XRP in late June. Large transfers to exchanges are often associated with selling intent, so the decline suggests whales are less willing to move tokens to trading platforms.

Derivatives Tell a Different Story

While spot activity fades, derivatives markets are showing the opposite trend. XRP Open Interest on Binance increased 5.9% to $423.8 million, pushing the estimated leverage ratio to 0.162, its highest reading in recent weeks. Funding rates remained close to neutral and fell 29.9% from the previous week, though they still sit 172.5% above their monthly average and 271.7% above their quarterly baseline.

Across all exchanges, perpetual futures Open Interest stands at $2.43 billion, according to CoinGlass. Despite a 6% decline in the last 24 hours, average Open Interest has been building steadily at $2.11 billion since July 7, reflecting growing participation from traders willing to take on additional market exposure.

ETF Flows Return as Bulls Target Key Levels

Institutional sentiment has shown modest improvement. US spot XRP ETFs attracted nearly $2.5 million in inflows on Monday, building on $7 million in net inflows last week and reversing approximately $7 million in net outflows from the prior week. Cumulative net investments in US-listed XRP ETFs now stand at $1.49 billion, with total net assets near $991 million, according to CoinGlass.

XRP is currently trading at $1.12, up nearly 3% in the last 24 hours. The token faces overhead resistance at the 50-day EMA near $1.15, followed by the 100-day EMA around $1.24 and the 200-day EMA close to $1.45. On the downside, immediate support sits at the recent weekly low of $1.06. The MACD histogram remains slightly positive and the Relative Strength Index sits above 50, suggesting growing buying momentum in the near term.

The divergence between cooling spot demand and rising derivatives exposure could set the stage for increased volatility. If spot demand continues to weaken while leveraged longs accumulate, the market may face conditions conducive to a sharp correction. Conversely, if the derivatives activity signals institutional accumulation — supported by returning US spot XRP ETF inflows — a breakout above the 50-day EMA near $1.15 could follow.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.