3 Gulf states bypass US to forge independent Iran security deal

Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar have opened direct diplomatic channels with Iran to negotiate a regional security framework, bypassing the United States as Washington's credibility among Gulf allies erodes following the Feb. 28 conflict.

"The Gulf states have concluded that American security guarantees are no longer bankable assets," said Elena Fischer, a geopolitical risk analyst covering the Middle East. "They're hedging — betting that a regulated, engaged adversary is safer than an unpredictable patron."

The talks, reported by the UK Telegraph on June 30, follow the June 17 US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding that mandated Tehran to negotiate with Gulf states over the Strait of Hormuz. Oman hosted Iranian Majlis Speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Muscat on June 23, while Saudi Arabia is positioning itself as the principal convening power for future regional diplomacy. The Strait handles about 21% of global oil trade, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

The diplomatic realignment threatens to marginalize Washington in a region where it has maintained military primacy for decades. If Gulf states reach an independent accommodation with Tehran, the US could lose leverage over both Iran's nuclear program — Paragraph Eight of the MOU commits Tehran not to develop nuclear weapons — and the future administration of the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has proposed a toll system modeled on the Strait of Malacca.

The shift reflects what analysts describe as a "deterrence gap" — the perception that US military power no longer guarantees Gulf security. Iran and its proxies deployed thousands of aerial systems against regional infrastructure after the conflict began Feb. 28, according to the Institute for the Study of War. US retaliatory strikes, including attacks on 10 Iranian military targets in and near the Strait of Hormuz on June 27, have not deterred Tehran from renewing attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain as recently as June 28.

A repricing of regional security

The Gulf's pivot challenges conventional international relations theory, which expects states to balance against an adversary that has just attacked them. Instead, Gulf monarchies are accommodating Tehran. The reason: Washington's demonstrated unreliability. The last time the US faced a comparable credibility crisis in the Gulf was after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, when Gulf states deepened security ties with Washington rather than bypassing it. This time, the calculus has reversed.

"The MOU did not so much successfully reopen the Strait of Hormuz as it temporarily eased pressure on maritime traffic without resolving the deeper crisis," said Dr. Ahmed Alkhuzaie, a Bahraini analyst, as quoted by the Jerusalem Post. "By focusing on optics and short-term relief, the MOU froze the surface of the conflict but left its structural triggers untouched."

Iran's continued attacks — a drone strike on the Singapore-flagged M/V Ever Lovely on June 25 and the Panamanian-flagged M/T Kiku on June 27 — show the fragility of the ceasefire. The IRGC Navy Command has announced plans for US bases in the region to "experience hell in the coming days." President Donald Trump responded on Truth Social that Iran "has fully and completely agreed to highest level Nuclear inspections long into the future."

What's at stake for oil markets

Any disruption to the Strait of Hormuz carries direct consequences for global crude prices. The waterway handles about 21 million barrels per day, or roughly a fifth of global consumption. Brent crude has already priced in a risk premium since the February conflict, and a Gulf-Iran security framework that excludes the US could introduce new uncertainties around tolling, insurance and shipping routes.

For Gulf sovereign wealth funds — which manage more than $3 trillion in combined assets — the stakes extend beyond oil. A regional security arrangement with Iran could unlock economic diversification projects that have stalled due to geopolitical risk, particularly in Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 program.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.