Bavarian Nordic A/S (BAVA.CO) raised its 2026 revenue forecast to between 5.5 billion and 5.7 billion Danish crowns on Monday after securing a new $97 million contract option from the U.S. government for its smallpox vaccine.
"We are a preferred supplier of mpox and smallpox vaccines to governments to enhance public health preparedness," the company noted in a statement, highlighting its strategic position.
The updated guidance of DKK 5.5-5.7 billion ($867 million-$898 million) was announced alongside the new contract from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services for a freeze-dried version of its JYNNEOS vaccine. The news sent shares up 2.6% to 194.60 DKK on the Nasdaq Copenhagen exchange. The stock now has an average analyst price target of 268.33 DKK, implying a further 41% upside.
The dual announcements reinforce the vaccine maker's growth trajectory, which is heavily reliant on government contracts for public health preparedness. The new U.S. deal for a freeze-dried formulation suggests a focus on long-term stockpiling, a stable revenue source for the company.
The U.S. contract is a significant endorsement of Bavarian Nordic's JYNNEOS vaccine, which is approved for both smallpox and mpox. The development of a freeze-dried version is critical for long-term government stockpiling efforts, as it offers a longer shelf-life and less stringent storage requirements compared to liquid formulations. This makes it a more reliable component of national strategic reserves against bioterrorism or future outbreaks.
In a separate announcement on the same day, the company confirmed the completion of the second tranche of its 2026 share buyback program. The company repurchased 1,050,863 shares for an aggregate amount of approximately DKK 200 million, at an average price of DKK 190.32 per share.
This brings the total repurchased amount to DKK 350 million under the 2026 plan, which has a total authorization of up to DKK 500 million. Following the latest transactions, Bavarian Nordic now holds 2,748,624 treasury shares, corresponding to 3.47% of the company's total share capital, which it will use to adjust its capital structure.
The combination of a higher revenue forecast driven by a new government contract and continued shareholder returns signals strong operational and financial health. The focus on a freeze-dried vaccine formulation secures a key long-term revenue stream. Investors will now watch for the company's first-quarter earnings release on May 12 for further details on segment performance and margin expectations.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
