Bitcoin breaks 200-week moving average as $10B in options near expiry

Bitcoin fell 6.6% to $59,460, breaching its 200-week moving average for the first time since the 2022 bear market, CoinGecko data show.

"The break of the 200-week moving average is a significant technical event that could trigger further selling from algorithmic strategies," Adam Lynch, analyst at Charles Schwab, said.

More than $850 million in crypto long positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with over $400 million tied to Bitcoin, according to Coinglass. The selloff accelerated as $10 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire Friday on Deribit, the largest monthly expiry event of 2026. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded heavy net outflows since June 17, while Strategy bought just 520 BTC for about $35 million in the week ending June 21, its smallest weekly purchase in roughly 18 months, SEC filings show.

The 200-week moving average break places Bitcoin in technically bearish territory, with the next major support near $57,300. A recovery above $61,700 could trigger a squeeze toward $62,300, where a dense cluster of short liquidations sits, Coinglass data show. The outcome of the Clarity Act will determine the regulatory framework for US crypto markets, potentially driving the next leg of price action.

$10B Options Expiry Adds to Volatility Risk

The $10 billion options expiration on Deribit represents one of the largest monthly expiry events of 2026, with a max pain point near $65,000, according to Deribit data. Options market makers typically hedge positions ahead of expiry, and the concentration of open interest near current levels could amplify price swings as positions are rolled or closed.

Philippe Laffont, billionaire founder of Coatue Management, told CNBC he was "a little bit more worried" about Bitcoin, citing competing investment opportunities in AI and SpaceX. "The AI momentum is certainly suckling a lot of the oxygen out of the room," BlackRock's head of digital assets Robert Mitchnick said, noting it had been a "tough stretch" for the cryptocurrency since its October peak.

Clarity Act Looms as Regulatory Crossroads

The crypto industry is awaiting the outcome of the Clarity Act, proposed legislation that would establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets in the US. The bill's passage or failure could determine whether institutional capital returns to the market or remains on the sidelines. Bitcoin's market dominance has risen to roughly 58% of the $2 trillion global crypto market, down from $4.28 trillion in October, according to CoinMarketCap.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.