Bitcoin climbs 2% to $64,000 as volatility trap hits 91

Bitcoin rose 2 percent to $64,154 on Aug. 17, recovering from $62,751 as buyers defended the $63,000 support zone for a third consecutive session.

Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft said implied volatility has fallen into the lowest 2 percent of its historical distribution, pushing the firm's volatility trap score to 91 out of 100 — the highest reading in more than three and a half years.

The rebound carried BTC above the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement at $63,152 and through the Bollinger Bands' upper boundary near $63,774 on the 4-hour chart. Chaikin Money Flow on that timeframe rose to 0.24, confirming buying volume supported the move. Funding rates reached 0.022 on Aug. 14, the highest in 20 months, according to CryptoQuant, while Binance futures volume outweighed spot by nearly eight times.

A daily close above $64,000 opens a path toward $65,000, with the next larger upside level at $67,357 — the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of Bitcoin's decline from $82,825 to $57,796. Failure to hold $63,152 would put $62,500 back in focus, with liquidation clusters near $64,700 and $62,200 shaping the near-term range.

Volatility trap score hits 91 as options market prices historic calm

Glassnode's volatility trap metric measures the gap between implied and realized volatility. Schultze-Kraft noted that while implied volatility sits at a historical low, it remains roughly 1.5 times higher than Bitcoin's recent realized volatility — meaning options traders still pay a premium even as actual price movements have narrowed to an unusual degree.

Past periods of severe compression have often preceded larger price swings, but the data does not indicate whether the next expansion will be higher or lower. Bitcoin has largely traded between $62,000 and $65,000 since late July despite several brief moves outside those levels.

The daily chart has not yet confirmed a broader bullish reversal. The moving average convergence divergence indicator remains below its signal line, with MACD at minus 183 versus a signal line near minus 101. Daily Chaikin Money Flow stayed slightly negative at minus 0.05, contrasting with the 4-hour reading of 0.24 and suggesting buyers have returned in the short term while broader capital flows remain weak.

Funding rates hit 20-month high as futures volume dwarfs spot

CryptoQuant data shows funding rates hit 0.022 on Aug. 14, the highest level in 20 months, indicating most derivatives traders hold long positions. The platform also flagged that futures trading volume on Binance outweighed spot markets by nearly eight times, an all-time high for the ratio.

CoinGlass data shows 24-hour cross-crypto liquidations at $180 million as BTC/USD returned toward $64,000. The one-week liquidation heatmap shows major liquidity clusters near $64,700 above the price and $62,200 on the downside. A move through $64,700 could force short sellers to close positions, adding buying pressure and potentially pushing BTC toward $65,000.

Fed minutes and CLARITY Act in focus

Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at crypto exchange BTSE, said recent exchange-traded fund outflows contributed to the earlier weakness in Bitcoin and Ethereum. He pointed to the Federal Open Market Committee minutes due this week as a key signal for rate expectations, and noted that uncertainty over the CLARITY Act has held back some large institutional investors.

"BTC and ETH pulled back a bit after some ETF outflows last week, with Bitcoin now sitting around $63,000 and ETH near $1,878," Mei said. "The big things to keep an eye on this week are the FOMC minutes, which'll give us a peek into what the Fed's actually thinking on rates, and whether the CLARITY Act gets any attention in the Senate before they head out for recess."

Mei said traders continue to favor artificial intelligence stocks, leaving crypto in need of stronger institutional inflows or greater macro liquidity to support another sustained advance. Until ETF demand strengthens or the Federal Reserve signals easier policy, Bitcoin's recovery may remain vulnerable near the upper end of its recent range.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.