Bitcoin climbs to 3-week high as Bernstein holds $150K target

Bitcoin rose 4.2% to $63,150 on July 6, its highest level in three weeks, as Bernstein analysts maintained their $150,000 year-end target despite acknowledging a "painful" recent retrace.

"Bitcoin likely has another parabolic cycle ahead, but the next bull run requires deeper institutional allocation — Bitcoin needs to be a core macro asset, not just a retail-driven ETF trade," Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, said.

The recovery followed a weaker-than-expected June jobs report, with the U.S. economy adding 57,000 jobs versus the 115,000 consensus estimate, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed. The miss pushed traders to pare bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike, with markets now pricing an 82% chance of a hold at the July 28-29 meeting, according to CME data. Bitcoin had fallen below $58,000 earlier in the week, its lowest level in 21 months, before rebounding.

The next test comes July 14, when June CPI data is released. ING analysts expect headline inflation to fall month-on-month due to plunging gasoline prices, which could reinforce expectations for a prolonged Fed pause rather than a rate increase. For Bitcoin, a dovish pivot would support the "debasement" trade that has historically driven institutional flows into the asset.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted $527 million in net outflows over the holiday-shortened week ending July 2, extending their losing streak to eight consecutive weeks — the longest negative run in the category's history, according to SoSoValue data. BlackRock's IBIT remained the primary pressure point, recording its 11th straight session of redemptions and losing approximately $2.2 billion over that span.

However, Thursday saw a reversal, with the funds taking in $221.72 million — their largest single-day inflow since May 5 — snapping a 10-session outflow streak. Fidelity's FBTC led with $165.96 million, followed by ARK and 21Shares' ARKB at $91.84 million. The late-week rebound suggests buyers have not fully retreated, even as the broader trend remains cautious.

Bernstein's $150,000 target implies roughly 140% upside from current levels. The firm acknowledged the recent retrace has been "painful" but maintained its conviction, pointing to institutional adoption as the structural driver. CryptoQuant's Ki Young Ju estimated that Bitcoin would need to absorb $1 trillion in realized capitalization to fuel another parabolic cycle, comparing it to the $697 billion that produced a 689% return in the current cycle.

The relationship between Federal Reserve policy and Bitcoin "has never been more significant than it is today," Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com, said. He identified three variables that will dictate Bitcoin's trajectory: institutional ETF flows, geopolitical developments, and expectations around interest rates.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.