Bitcoin cost basis crossover signals end of 9-month bear market

A key on-chain signal that has marked the end of every prior Bitcoin bear cycle just flashed for the first time in nine months.

Bitcoin's short-term holder cost basis dropped below the long-term holder cost basis for the first time in the current correction, CryptoQuant data shows.

"The STH cost basis falling under the LTH cost basis has historically coincided with the final phase of bear markets," Darkfost, an analyst at CryptoQuant, said.

The short-term holder cost basis declined from $112,500 to roughly $69,000 as newer buyers kept averaging into weakness over the past nine months. Coins untouched for seven to 10 years started moving, with that cohort spiking 374 percent, while Coin Days Destroyed climbed alongside it, according to CryptoQuant contributor CryptoOnchain. Miner shutdowns jumped 2,150 percent against the 90-day baseline, and miner-to-Binance flows rose more than 470 percent across the same stretch.

The crossover does not confirm a bottom, but it suggests the market is entering the final stage of the current cycle. If Bitcoin holds above the $62,000 to $64,000 range where veteran holders have been distributing, the setup could shift buying pressure back toward the asset.

Supply-Side Restructuring Accelerates

The simultaneous spike in miner capitulation and ancient-coin movement points to a structural supply-side shift, CryptoOnchain said. Older holders from prior cycles appear to be trimming positions in the $62,000 to $64,000 range while liquidity remains available — not panic selling, but distribution while the market can still absorb it.

Bitcoin held a relatively narrow range through the pressure, trading near $64,500 as of 14:00 UTC on July 18. The ability to absorb both miner distress and veteran distribution without a deeper breakdown suggests passive demand is soaking up the excess supply, according to CryptoQuant.

STH Cost Basis Tells the Story

The short-term holder cohort has been the primary driver of the crossover. Their average entry fell from $112,500 to $69,000 as they bought every dip, lowering their own cost basis through the entire downturn. That pattern mirrors prior cycle bottoms where late-stage buyers accumulated through the final washout, per CryptoQuant's historical data.

Institutional buyers entering Bitcoin over the past two years have not changed the underlying cycle dynamics, the analysis noted. Bitcoiners are still acting like Bitcoiners, regardless of who else has shown up in the room.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.