Bitcoin drops 50% from peak as Wintermute says bottom not confirmed

Bitcoin fell to its lowest since September 2024, down 50% from the $126,080 all-time high reached in October 2025, as persistent ETF outflows and weak capital inflows kept the market under pressure.

"Since May 18, there has been only one day of inflows, on June 4, which shows how weak the passive bid has become," Alex Tsepaev, chief strategy officer at B2PRIME Group, said.

Wintermute, a leading crypto market maker, said in a Tuesday note that the $62,000 support level has come undone after Bitcoin's recent drop. The firm noted that Bitcoin never spent meaningful time in the $50,000 to $59,000 range on the way up in 2024, leaving flow as the primary directional driver. Users on prediction market Myriad assigned a 72% chance that Bitcoin's next move could push it to $55,000, up from 39% on June 1.

The 50% drawdown from the October 2025 peak is the shallowest in Bitcoin's history, compared with 90% in 2012 and 74% in the 2022 cycle. Still, analysts said the bottom is not yet in. Jeff Ko, chief analyst at crypto exchange CoinEx, pointed to ETF outflows, macro tightening, and liquidity rotation as reasons the bear market has further to run.

ETF Outflows Signal Institutional De-Risking

The persistent capital flight from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has been a key driver of the selloff. Since mid-May, net outflows have been near-continuous, with only a single day of inflows recorded on June 4. This pattern suggests institutional allocators are reducing exposure as macroeconomic headwinds intensify, including elevated interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty.

Key Levels to Watch

Both Ko and Tsepaev highlighted $60,000 as the first critical psychological level. A break below that opens the path to $55,000, with $45,000 as the next major support. Wintermute echoed this bearish outlook, noting that the lack of technical structure in the $50,000 to $59,000 range means price discovery will be driven by order flow rather than historical levels.

For the broader crypto market, the absence of a confirmed bottom carries risks beyond Bitcoin. Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, saw its stock plunge 31% over the past month alongside Bitcoin's 22% decline, illustrating the contagion risk to equity markets. A de-escalation in geopolitical tensions or a pivot toward dovish Fed policy could provide the trigger for a recovery, but for now, the data points in one direction.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.