Key Takeaways:
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $85 million in net inflows on June 12, the highest single-day total in more than a month, data from SoSoValue show.
"The reversal in ETF flows suggests the aggressive institutional unwind that drove BTC below $60,000 may be exhausting itself," Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said.
The inflow broke a 13-session outflow streak that had drained roughly $4.4 billion from the funds since mid-May. Friday's $85 million figure marked the strongest single-day positive flow in more than three weeks, following a week that saw total outflows slow to $316 million from more than $5 billion in the prior four-week period.
The flow reversal gives Bitcoin a demand-side anchor as it faces its next macro test: the Federal Reserve's June 17 rate decision, Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting. BTC must hold above $65,000 and reclaim the $68,000-to-$70,000 zone to confirm the recovery has legs, with the 200-week moving average near $61,800 serving as the last line of structural support.
The June 12 inflow coincided with a broader macro relief rally after President Donald Trump announced a US-Iran peace deal that reopened the Strait of Hormuz and sent oil prices lower. Bitcoin climbed more than 3% to as high as $65,940 on the news before settling near $65,668 as of press time, according to CoinGecko.
The improvement in ETF flows aligns with on-chain signals that forced selling has begun to cool. CryptoQuant data show that more than 11,400 BTC — worth roughly $750 million — were moved from exchanges into cold storage around the recent lows, while the supply held by wallets containing at least 100 BTC reversed a 12-day decline.
Still, the recovery remains fragile. The 13-day outflow streak had erased roughly $4.4 billion in cumulative inflows, and institutional selling still outpaces daily mined supply by a wide margin. Bitcoin's open interest-weighted funding rate held positive through the drawdown, suggesting leveraged longs have yet to fully capitulate — a dynamic that could add pressure if the macro backdrop deteriorates.
The Fed's June 17 decision is the immediate catalyst. A hawkish hold or rate hike from Warsh could stall the rally and test the $60,000 support zone. Conversely, a dovish signal could accelerate the recovery, with the $68,000-to-$70,000 range as the first major resistance.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
