Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP have entered historically low-risk zones based on on-chain data, pointing to a potential market bottom after weeks of selling.
Back
Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP enter low-risk zones as 160M XRP accumulated
Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP have entered historically low-risk zones, according to Santiment on-chain data, as accumulation signals emerge after weeks of relentless selling. The three largest crypto assets by market cap are showing on-chain metrics that have historically preceded sustained recoveries, Santiment analyst Brian Quinlivan said.
"Investors shouldn't focus on price alone — on-chain data may reveal where the strongest long-term opportunities are emerging," Quinlivan, an analyst at Santiment, said in a note on July 4. The firm's risk metrics, which track wallet creation, whale activity and social sentiment, are flashing levels that have historically marked bottoms in prior cycles.
XRP has seen the most visible accumulation signals. The XRP Ledger added 4,941 new wallets in a single day, its strongest network growth in more than three months, Santiment data shows. Wallets holding 10 million to 100 million XRP added 160 million tokens in June, the largest cohort-level increase. US spot XRP ETFs extended their inflow streak to eight consecutive weeks, attracting $22.99 million in net inflows last week and another $15.34 million on Monday.
The question is whether this on-chain demand converts into sustained buying pressure or fades as short-term FOMO, Quinlivan said. With XRP trading near $1.05 and Bitcoin sitting below key on-chain valuation levels including the True Mean Price of $76,300 and the 200-day moving average of $75,500, the coming sessions should reveal which way the data breaks. Historical bear market patterns suggest a potential bottom near $45,000 for Bitcoin if prior cycle relationships hold.
On-chain signals point to accumulation
Across all three large XRP holder cohorts, accumulation continued in June despite a 21 percent price decline, Santiment data shows. The 100,000 to 1 million XRP tier added 30 million tokens, while the 1 million to 10 million XRP tier added 20 million tokens. Social sentiment has also flipped bullish, with the positive-to-negative ratio reaching 3.7 positive comments for every bearish one — a three-month high.
Bitcoin's on-chain picture is more mixed. The asset trades below its short-term holder cost basis of $69,600 and its 128-day moving average of $70,900, levels that have historically acted as resistance during bear phases. The long-term holder cost basis sits at $49,900, while the realized price — the average price at which all circulating Bitcoin last moved on-chain — stands at $53,200.
What comes next
The divergence between price weakness and on-chain accumulation creates a setup that has historically resolved bullishly when wallet growth and whale buying precede price recovery. XRP ETFs have not recorded a single day of net outflows since June 3, a streak that contrasts sharply with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which have seen seven consecutive weeks of net outflows totaling approximately $7.7 billion.
For investors watching the on-chain data, the key levels to monitor are Bitcoin reclaiming the $69,600 short-term holder cost basis and XRP holding above $1.00. A confirmed break above those levels on expanding volume would validate the accumulation thesis. A failure to hold would suggest the low-risk zone is a floor still being tested rather than confirmed.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP Price Enter Historically Low-Risk Zones[2] HBAR Price Prediction: Dead-Cat or Genuine Reversal? The $0.08 Wall Tells You Everything[3] XRP Demand Builds On-Chain Even as Price Sinks to 19-Month Low[4] Bitcoin falls into a technical no man's land as major support levels sit miles away[5] CZ Battles EU Regulators and Floats Satoshi Bitcoin Freeze in Same Week
