Bitcoin faces $10.6B options expiry as 80% of bets sit underwater

Bitcoin fell 11% in June to $61,580 ahead of a $10.6 billion options expiry where 80% of positions are out of the money, Deribit data shows.

"The concentration of underwater call positions creates a gravitational pull toward the max pain level, where market makers have the least incentive to hedge," Nina Volkov, a crypto macro analyst at Edgen, said. "If bitcoin can't reclaim $65,000 before Friday's settlement, dealer hedging could accelerate the downside."

Approximately $8.6 billion of the $10.6 billion in outstanding options contracts are currently out of the money and could expire worthless if prices do not recover, according to Deribit data. Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index cooled to 43% from nearly 48% earlier this week, while the one-week put-call skew on Deribit widened to 10.9 vol points from roughly 7 points a day ago, pointing to intensifying downside concerns. Futures open interest held steady at around 730,000 BTC for eight consecutive days, with funding rates turning negative across major exchanges.

The options overhang compounds broader weakness in spot markets. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows in 11 of 13 trading sessions between May 29 and June 16, with the largest single-day redemption reaching $519 million on June 2, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for a significant share of the withdrawals. Bitcoin now needs to hold the psychological $60,000 level to avoid sliding into a trading range not seen since late 2024, with $52,000 emerging as the next key support.

$158 Million in Liquidations as Leverage Unwinds

The derivatives market has already begun repricing risk. Liquidations totaled $158 million over the past 24 hours, the lowest in two weeks, suggesting many leveraged positions were closed earlier in the month. The 24-hour cumulative volume delta for bitcoin turned negative, indicating bears are leading price action through market orders rather than passive limit orders. Combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% in May to $4.41 trillion, the lowest since September 2024, per The Block data.

The macro backdrop has added to the pressure. The U.S. Dollar Index continued to set new highs, challenging its May 2025 peak, as traders priced out expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. A strengthening dollar typically weighs on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, by reducing the appeal of alternative stores of value.

ETF Outflows and Regulatory Crosscurrents

Beyond the persistent ETF withdrawals, Forward Industries — the largest publicly traded Solana treasury company by SOL holdings — failed to secure any of its three proposed stock-for-stock acquisitions, leaving it with more than $1 billion in unrealized losses on its 7 million SOL position acquired at an average price of $232 per token.

On the regulatory front, Binance may face restrictions on operating across the European Union after Greece's regulator is expected to reject the exchange's MiCA license application ahead of the June 30 deadline, according to Reuters. Separately, Illinois approved a 0.2% tax on digital asset business activity, expected to raise approximately $60 million annually, raising concerns that similar measures could spread to other jurisdictions.

Despite the headwinds, some pockets of strength remain. Prediction markets surged during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with Polymarket's tournament winner market generating more than $2.5 billion in trading volume. Hyperliquid, a decentralized perpetual futures exchange, surpassed $10 billion in open interest as demand grows for blockchain-based trading of equities, commodities, and pre-IPO markets.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.