Bitcoin holds near $65K as Iran war, tech sell-off curb upside

Bitcoin fell 1.2% to $64,560 by 14:30 UTC on Monday after three failed attempts to break and hold the $65,000 resistance level.

"The $65K level has capped price for the entirety of July so far," Daan Crypto Trades, a pseudonymous trader, said in an X post. "But I do think the longer price spends here, the more likely the $65K level is to break."

Hedge funds sold US information technology stocks in six of the past eight weeks, the largest eight-week selling spree in at least a decade, according to Goldman Sachs data cited by trading resource The Kobeissi Letter. Oil prices held above $80 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, with US President Donald Trump calling for Iran to be included in a sanctions package initially targeting Russia.

The confluence of geopolitical risk and institutional de-risking leaves Bitcoin caught between a bullish technical setup — higher lows over the past three weeks — and a deteriorating macro backdrop that has pushed equities into defensive mode.

On-Chain Data Shows Fragile Demand

Bitcoin's 30-day spot demand deteriorated to negative 170,000 BTC in late July, CryptoQuant data showed, retreating from a brief recovery to negative 80,000 BTC earlier in the month. The on-chain analytics firm warned that the current rally lacks meaningful spot-market participation, leaving the market in a "structurally fragile state" where renewed selling could trigger a sharp downside move.

Coinglass data showed $420 million in cumulative long positions across major exchanges would be at risk if Bitcoin breaks below the $63,700 local low. The 200-week simple moving average at $63,322 has held as support for three consecutive weekly closes.

Traders Target $67K Despite Macro Headwinds

Michael van de Poppe, a crypto trader and analyst, set a Bitcoin price target between $67,500 and $69,000 for the coming weeks, with August offering the potential for a move to $80,000 — a level last seen in mid-May. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 29 out of 100 on Monday, its highest since the start of June, showing that panic among the broader investor base is slowly dissipating.

Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, hovered between 34% and 38%, a range that in recent years has preceded volatility booms and price slides. The last time BVIV reached this zone in late May, Bitcoin dropped from $74,000 to under $60,000 in less than a week.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.